2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Arkansas voters chose six electors[2] to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian, Green, Constitution, American Solidarity, Life and Liberty, and Socialism and Liberation nominees were also on the ballot, as were five Independent candidates.

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas

November 3, 2020
Turnout	66.92%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 760,647 423,932 Percentage 62.40% 34.78%
County results Trump   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Biden   40–50%   50–60%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

On the day of the election, Trump scored a convincing victory in Arkansas, defeating Biden by 28 points; he improved his statewide performance in 2016 by two points. This extended the Republican Party's streak of improving margins in Arkansas to seven consecutive elections, by far the longest current streak in the nation for either party. However, Biden did improve in Washington County, home to the college town of Fayetteville, only losing it by four points. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Arkansas came from 86% with white, born again/evangelical Christians. 52% of voters opposed changing the Arkansas state flag to remove the star that symbolizes the Confederacy, and these voters backed Trump by 88%–10%.[3] Biden also became the first Democrat to win the presidency without Woodruff County.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republicans candidates. Tom Cotton, current senator from Arkansas, has declined to run as of January 2019.[4][5][6]

The following candidates are on the ballot.[7]

2020 Arkansas Republican Party presidential primary[8]
Candidate	Popular vote		Delegates
	Count	Percentage
Donald Trump	238,980	97.13%	40
Bill Weld	5,216	2.12%	0
Rocky De La Fuente	1,848	0.75%	0
Total	246,044	100%	40

Democratic primary

Popular vote share by county

  Biden—30–40%

  Biden—40–50%

  Biden—50–60%

  Biden—60–70%

  Sanders—30–40%

2020 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary[9]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[10]
Joe Biden	93,012	40.59	17
Bernie Sanders	51,413	22.44	9
Michael Bloomberg	38,312	16.72	5
Elizabeth Warren	22,971	10.03
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†)	7,649	3.34
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†)	7,009	3.06
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†)	2,053	0.90
Tulsi Gabbard	1,593	0.70
Kamala Harris (withdrawn)	715	0.31
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	715	0.31
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	574	0.25
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	572	0.25
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	501	0.22
Steve Bullock (withdrawn)	485	0.21
John Delaney (withdrawn)	443	0.19
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)	408	0.18
Mosie Boyd	393	0.17
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	304	0.13
Total	229,122	100%	31

†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[11]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[12]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
Politico[14]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
RCP[15]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
Niskanen[16]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
CNN[17]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
The Economist[18]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
CBS News[19]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
270towin[20]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
ABC News[21]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
NPR[22]	Likely R	November 3, 2020
NBC News[23]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
538[24]	Safe R	November 3, 2020

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	September 20 – October 21, 2020	October 28, 2020	35.0%	60.3%	4.7%	Trump +25.3
FiveThirtyEight	until October 27, 2020	October 28, 2020	35.5%	59.7%	4.8%	Trump +24.2
Average			35.3%	60.0%	4.7%	Trump +24.7

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	1,309 (LV)	± 4%	61%[lower-alpha 3]	38%	-	-	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	2,239 (LV)	–	60%	38%	-	-	–	–
University of Arkansas	Oct 9–21, 2020	591 (LV)	± 3.9%	65%	32%	-	-	3%	–
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics	Oct 11–13, 2020	647 (LV)	± 4.9%	58%	34%	2%	1%	2%[lower-alpha 4]	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	771 (LV)	–	62%	38%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	689 (LV)	–	67%	32%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	747 (LV)	–	66%	32%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	354 (LV)	–	59%	38%	-	-	–	2%
Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics	Jun 9–10, 2020	869 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%	45%	-	-	5%[lower-alpha 5]	3%

Statewide results

2020 United States presidential election in Arkansas[25]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	760,647	62.40%	+1.83%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	423,932	34.78%	+1.13%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	13,133	1.08%	-1.56%
	Independent	Kanye West Michelle Tidball	4,099	0.34%	N/A
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	2,980	0.24%	-0.60%
	Independent	Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker	2,812	0.23%	N/A
	Independent	Brock Pierce Karla Ballard	2,141	0.18%	N/A
	Constitution	Don Blankenship William Mohr	2,108	0.17%	-0.24%
	American Solidarity	Brian Carroll Amar Patel	1,713	0.14%	N/A
	Independent	C. L. Gammon Phil Collins[lower-alpha 6]	1,475	0.12%	N/A
	Life and Liberty	John Richard Myers Tiara Lusk	1,372	0.11%	N/A
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman	1,336	0.11%	N/A
	Independent	Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson	1,321	0.11%	N/A
Total votes			1,219,069	100%	+2.83%

Results by county

Vote breakdown by county[25]

	Trump/Pence Republican		Biden/Harris Democratic		Others[lower-alpha 7]		Margin		Total
County	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes
Arkansas	4,304	68.40%	1,818	28.89%	170	2.70%	2,486	39.51%	6,292
Ashley	5,548	70.00%	2,125	26.81%	253	3.19%	3,423	43.19%	7,926
Baxter	15,836	75.38%	4,635	22.06%	536	2.55%	11,201	53.32%	21,007
Benton	73,965	61.68%	42,249	35.23%	3,698	3.08%	31,716	26.45%	119,912
Boone	13,652	79.77%	3,064	17.90%	398	2.33%	10,588	61.87%	17,114
Bradley	2,335	63.90%	1,214	33.22%	105	2.87%	1,121	30.68%	3,654
Calhoun	1,636	74.98%	479	21.95%	67	3.07%	1,157	53.02%	2,182
Carroll	7,424	62.93%	4,023	34.10%	350	2.97%	3,401	28.83%	11,797
Chicot	1,752	42.70%	2,260	55.08%	91	2.22%	–508	–12.38%	4,103
Clark	4,616	54.99%	3,438	40.95%	341	4.06%	1,178	14.03%	8,395
Clay	4,086	78.83%	962	18.56%	135	2.60%	3,124	60.27%	5,183
Cleburne	10,328	81.45%	1,988	15.68%	364	2.87%	8,340	65.77%	12,680
Cleveland	2,867	79.64%	651	18.08%	82	2.28%	2,216	61.56%	3,600
Columbia	5,500	63.83%	2,814	32.66%	302	3.51%	2,686	31.17%	8,616
Conway	5,694	65.56%	2,615	30.11%	376	4.33%	3,079	35.45%	8,685
Craighead	25,558	66.37%	11,921	30.95%	1,032	2.68%	13,637	35.41%	38,511
Crawford	18,607	77.24%	4,959	20.58%	525	2.18%	13,648	56.65%	24,091
Crittenden	7,333	44.80%	8,514	52.02%	520	3.18%	–1,181	–7.22%	16,367
Cross	4,946	71.25%	1,772	25.53%	224	3.23%	3,174	45.72%	6,942
Dallas	1,573	59.38%	963	36.35%	113	4.27%	610	23.03%	2,649
Desha	1,921	46.13%	2,016	48.41%	227	5.45%	–95	–2.28%	4,164
Drew	4,349	62.96%	2,426	35.12%	133	1.93%	1,923	27.84%	6,908
Faulkner	34,421	63.24%	18,347	33.71%	1,660	3.05%	16,074	29.53%	54,428
Franklin	5,677	79.63%	1,300	18.24%	152	2.13%	4,377	61.40%	7,129
Fulton	3,961	77.38%	1,035	20.22%	123	2.40%	2,926	57.16%	5,119
Garland	29,069	65.77%	14,045	31.78%	1,085	2.45%	15,024	33.99%	44,199
Grant	6,794	82.85%	1,268	15.46%	138	1.68%	5,526	67.39%	8,200
Greene	12,670	78.70%	3,058	18.99%	372	2.31%	9,612	59.70%	16,100
Hempstead	4,470	65.27%	2,138	31.22%	240	3.50%	2,332	34.05%	6,848
Hot Spring	9,202	73.28%	3,082	24.54%	273	2.17%	6,120	48.74%	12,557
Howard	3,367	69.65%	1,340	27.72%	127	2.63%	2,027	41.93%	4,834
Independence	11,250	77.52%	2,806	19.34%	456	3.14%	8,444	58.19%	14,512
Izard	4,631	79.71%	1,021	17.57%	158	2.72%	3,610	62.13%	5,810
Jackson	3,593	70.58%	1,365	26.81%	133	2.61%	2,228	43.76%	5,091
Jefferson	9,521	37.84%	14,981	59.55%	656	2.61%	–5,460	–21.70%	25,158
Johnson	6,938	73.05%	2,283	24.04%	277	2.92%	4,655	49.01%	9,498
Lafayette	1,757	65.58%	839	31.32%	83	3.10%	918	34.27%	2,679
Lawrence	4,569	78.01%	1,080	18.44%	208	3.55%	3,489	59.57%	5,857
Lee	1,286	45.15%	1,423	49.96%	139	4.88%	–137	–4.81%	2,848
Lincoln	2,729	70.75%	1,032	26.76%	96	2.49%	1,697	44.00%	3,857
Little River	3,715	71.76%	1,226	23.68%	236	4.56%	2,489	48.08%	5,177
Logan	6,441	78.31%	1,544	18.77%	240	2.92%	4,897	59.54%	8,225
Lonoke	22,884	74.63%	6,686	21.81%	1,092	3.56%	16,198	52.83%	30,662
Madison	5,658	76.97%	1,563	21.26%	130	1.77%	4,095	55.71%	7,351
Marion	5,783	77.08%	1,531	20.41%	189	2.52%	4,252	56.67%	7,503
Miller	11,920	72.12%	4,245	25.68%	364	2.20%	7,675	46.43%	16,529
Mississippi	7,296	59.12%	4,558	36.93%	488	3.95%	2,738	22.18%	12,342
Monroe	1,545	54.87%	1,147	40.73%	124	4.40%	398	14.13%	2,816
Montgomery	3,046	78.65%	731	18.87%	96	2.48%	2,315	59.77%	3,873
Nevada	2,133	63.52%	1,076	32.04%	149	4.44%	1,057	31.48%	3,358
Newton	3,192	79.84%	709	17.73%	97	2.43%	2,483	62.11%	3,998
Ouachita	5,294	54.98%	3,995	41.49%	340	3.53%	1,299	13.49%	9,629
Perry	3,479	75.19%	1,012	21.87%	136	2.94%	2,467	53.32%	4,627
Phillips	2,417	38.72%	3,623	58.04%	202	3.24%	–1,206	–19.32%	6,242
Pike	3,519	82.88%	644	15.17%	83	1.95%	2,875	67.71%	4,246
Poinsett	5,918	78.69%	1,424	18.93%	179	2.38%	4,494	59.75%	7,521
Polk	7,035	82.86%	1,246	14.68%	209	2.46%	5,789	68.19%	8,490
Pope	18,081	74.01%	5,772	23.62%	579	2.37%	12,309	50.38%	24,432
Prairie	2,786	79.71%	654	18.71%	55	1.57%	2,132	61.00%	3,495
Pulaski	63,687	37.47%	101,947	59.98%	4,322	2.54%	–38,260	–22.51%	169,956
Randolph	5,355	78.61%	1,215	17.84%	242	3.55%	4,140	60.78%	6,812
St. Francis	3,242	45.61%	3,604	50.70%	262	3.69%	–362	–5.09%	7,108
Saline	39,556	69.45%	16,060	28.20%	1,343	2.36%	23,496	41.25%	56,959
Scott	2,962	83.41%	483	13.60%	106	2.99%	2,479	69.81%	3,551
Searcy	3,365	83.73%	588	14.63%	66	1.64%	2,777	69.10%	4,019
Sebastian	31,198	66.18%	14,487	30.73%	1,455	3.09%	16,711	35.45%	47,140
Sevier	3,884	74.66%	1,116	21.45%	202	3.88%	2,768	53.21%	5,202
Sharp	5,938	78.48%	1,398	18.48%	230	3.04%	4,540	60.01%	7,566
Stone	4,616	77.74%	1,180	19.87%	142	2.39%	3,436	57.86%	5,938
Union	10,478	63.09%	5,584	33.62%	545	3.28%	4,894	29.47%	16,607
Van Buren	6,034	77.29%	1,593	20.40%	180	2.31%	4,441	56.88%	7,807
Washington	47,504	50.39%	43,824	46.49%	2,938	3.12%	3,680	3.90%	94,266
White	24,182	78.30%	5,978	19.36%	725	2.35%	18,204	58.94%	30,885
Woodruff	1,543	62.32%	856	34.57%	77	3.11%	687	27.75%	2,476
Yell	5,226	77.53%	1,284	19.05%	231	3.43%	3,942	58.48%	6,741
Total	760,647	62.40%	423,932	34.78%	34,490	2.83%	336,715	27.62%	1,219,069

By congressional district

[27]

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	69%	28%	Rick Crawford
2nd	53%	44%	French Hill
3rd	62%	35%	Steve Womack
4th	68%	30%	Bruce Westerman

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
4. "Someone else" with 2%
5. "Another candidate" with 5%
6. C. L. Gammon was the original Presidential nominee of the Prohibition Party, with Phil Collins as his running mate. After Gammon withdrew, Collins was given the party's nomination for President, but appears on the ballot a second time as Gammon and Collins' original candidacy was never removed.[26]
7. Includes Jo Jorgensen, Kanye West, Howie Hawkins, Phil Collins, Brock Pierce, Don Blankenship, Brian T. Carroll, C. L. Gammon, John Richard Myers, Gloria La Riva, and Rocky De La Fuente.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Arkansas
• 2020 Arkansas elections
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Arkansas Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
4. Wells, Dylan; Talwar, Saisha (August 9, 2017). "Trump could face GOP challengers in the 2020 election". ABC News. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 9, 2017.
5. Millar, Lindsey (August 6, 2017). "Cotton figures in New York Times roundup on 2020 presidential race". Arkansas Times. Archived from the original on August 10, 2017. Retrieved August 10, 2017.
6. Beaumont, Thomas (May 19, 2017). "GOP's Cotton in Iowa: "I'm ready for that new beginning."". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on October 20, 2017. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
7. "Sample ballots in Arkansas". January 28, 2020.
8. "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
9. "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved March 23, 2020.
10. "Arkansas Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
11. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 23, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
12. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Archived from the original on May 27, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
13. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on April 4, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
14. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019. Archived from the original on June 14, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
15. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved April 27, 2020.
16. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
17. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Archived from the original on June 16, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
18. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
19. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
20. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 23, 2020.
21. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
22. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Archived from the original on August 4, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
23. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Archived from the original on August 7, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
24. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
25. "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
26. "Candidate Ballot Position Drawing" (PDF). Pulaski County Election Commission. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2020. Retrieved October 5, 2020.
27. Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Arkansas

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Arkansas", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Arkansas: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Arkansas". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Arkansas at Ballotpedia