2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election

The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii.

2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee David Ige Andria Tupola
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Josh Green Marissa Kerns
Popular vote 244,934 131,719
Percentage 62.7% 33.7%
County results
Ige:      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

David Ige
Democratic

 Elected Governor

David Ige
Democratic

Elections in Hawaii
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After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic Governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality. Ige's vote share of 62.67% is the highest of any gubernatorial candidate in Hawaiian history surpassing the previous record of 62.53% set by Linda Lingle in 2006.

Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for Governor and Lieutenant Governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum.[1] This was Hawaii's first gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee.

Democratic primary
Declared
Withdrew

Debates
Dates Location Ige Hanabusa Link
July 6, 2018 Honolulu, Hawaii Participant Participant Full debate - YouTube

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 David
Ige		 Colleen
Hanabusa		 Clayton
Hee		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 871 ± 3.3% 43% 34% – 18%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 494 ± 4.5% 44% 40% – 16%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) June 21 – July 6, 2018 518 ± 4.4% 31% 57% – 11%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) April 21 – May 7, 2018 888 ± 3.4% 23% 52% 6% 19%
Merriman River Group May 3–5, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 31% 37% 11% 16%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 498 ± 4.5% 27% 47% 11% 15%

Results
Results by county:
  Ige—50–60%
  Ige—40–50%
  Hanabusa—40–50%
  No data
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Ige (incumbent) 124,572 51.4
Democratic Colleen Hanabusa 107,631 44.4
Democratic Ernest Caravalho 5,662 2.3
Democratic Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a 2,298 0.9
Democratic Richard Kim 1,576 0.6
Democratic Van Tanabe 775 0.3
Total votes 242,514 100.0
Declared

Withdrew

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Bernard
Carvalho		 Will
Espero		 Josh
Green		 Kim Coco
Iwamoto		 Jill
Tokuda		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 871 ± 3.3% 13% 5% 31% 10% 17% 26%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 494 ± 4.5% 14% 6% 34% 10% 14% 22%
Merriman River Group May 3–5, 2018 707 ± 3.7% 19% 8% 16% 14% 11% 32%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 498 ± 4.5% 14% 9% 19% 5% 12% 41%

Results
Results by county:
  Green—50–60%
  Green—30–40%
  Tokuda—30–40%
  Carvalho—40–50%
  No data
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Green 74,845 31.4
Democratic Jill Tokuda 68,124 28.6
Democratic Bernard P. Carvalho 45,825 19.2
Democratic Kim Coco Iwamoto 34,243 14.3
Democratic Will Espero 15,463 6.5
Total votes 238,500 100.0

Republican primary
Declared
  • John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator [7][17]
  • Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[18]
  • Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[19][17]
Withdrew

Endorsements
Andria Tupola
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John
Carroll		 Raymond
L'Heureux		 Andria
Tupola		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 219 ± 6.6% 22% 4% 39% 22%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 143 ± 8.4% 28% 8% 41% 23%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 134 ± 8.6% 40% – 28% 32%

Results
Results by county:
  Tupola—50–60%
  Tupola—40–50%
  No data
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Andria Tupola 17,297 55.5
Republican John Carroll 10,974 35.2
Republican Ray L'Heureux 2,885 9.3
Total votes 31,156 100.0
Declared
  • Marissa Kerns
  • Steve Lipscomb
  • Jeremy Low

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Marissa
Kerns		 Jeremy
Low		 Undecided
Merriman River Group July 19–21, 2018 219 ± 6.6% 26% 20% 54%

Results
Results by county:
  Kerns—30–40%
  Lipscomb—30–40%
  No data
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marissa Dipasupil Kerns 9,758 35.4
Republican Steve Lipscomb 9,543 34.7
Republican Jeremy Low 8,232 29.9
Total votes 27,533 100.0

Green primary
Declared
  • Jim Brewer

Results
Results by county:
  Brewer—100%
  No data
Green primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Jim Brewer 454 100.0
Total votes 454 100.0
Declared
  • Renee Ing

Results
Results by county:
  Ing—100%
  No data
Green primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Renee Ing 444 100.0
Total votes 444 100.0

Nonpartisan primary
Declared
  • Selina Blackwell
  • Link El
  • Terrence Teruya
Results
Results by county:
  Teruya—50–60%
  Blackwell—40–50%
  Blackwell—50–60%
  No data
Nonpartisan primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya 543 47.7
Nonpartisan Selina Blackwell 497 43.7
Nonpartisan Link El 98 8.6
Total votes 1,138 100.0
Declared
  • Ernest Magaoay
  • Paul Robotti
Results
Results by county:
  Robotti—50–60%
  Magaoay—50–60%
  No Data
Nonpartisan primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Nonpartisan Paul Robotti 536 50.6
Nonpartisan Ernest Magaoay 523 49.4
Total votes 1,059 100.0

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[23] Safe D October 16, 2018
The Washington Post[24] Safe D October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[25] Safe D October 22, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[26] Safe D October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] Safe D October 19, 2018
Real Clear Politics[28] Safe D October 21, 2018
Daily Kos[29] Safe D October 22, 2018
Fox News[30][lower-alpha 1] Likely D October 19, 2018
Politico[31] Safe D October 19, 2018
Governing[32] Safe D October 22, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates
Dates Location Ige Tupola Link
October 29, 2018 Honolulu, Hawaii Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 David
Ige (D)		 Andria
Tupola (R)		 Undecided
Merriman River Group October 8–12, 2018 961 ± 4.3% 52% 31% 11%
Mason-Dixon July 6–11, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 57% 34% 9%
Mason-Dixon March 13–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 51% 24% 25%

Results
Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018 [33]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic David Ige (incumbent) 244,934 62.67% +13.22%
Republican Andria Tupola 131,719 33.70% -3.38%
Green Jim Brewer 10,123 2.59% N/A
Nonpartisan Terrence Teruya 4,067 1.04% N/A
Total votes 390,843 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

References
  1. Trahant, Mark (August 19, 2018). "Idaho is no longer safe for Republicans; Paulette Jordan trails by 8 points". Indian Country Today. Retrieved December 2, 2019 – via News Maven.
  2. "Ernest Caravalho". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
  3. Singer, Jeff (June 6, 2017). "Why several Hawaii Democrats are mulling primary bids against Gov. David Ige". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  4. Hooser, Gary (August 9, 2017). "Brace yourselves, primaries are coming". The Garden Island. Archived from the original on August 15, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
  5. "U.S. Rep. Hanabusa announces plans to run for governor". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  6. Callis, Tom (January 3, 2016). "Green saving up for run at higher office". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on November 16, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  7. Cook Lauer, Nancy (January 6, 2018). "Familiar candidate aims for governor". West Hawaii Today. Archived from the original on January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
  8. Blair, Chad (February 27, 2018). "Former Sen. Clayton Hee Is Running For Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
  9. Blair, Chad (June 4, 2018). "Clayton Hee Withdraws From Hawaii Governor's Race". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
  10. "Primary Election 2018 -State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
  11. "Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. to run for lieutenant governor". KHON 2. October 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  12. "Sens. Green, Espero announce runs for lieutenant governor in 2018". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  13. Cook Lauer, Nancy (June 13, 2017). "3 show interest in Green's seat as senator eyes lieutenant gov bid". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on August 23, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
  14. "Kim Coco Iwamoto announces bid for Lieutenant Governor". Island News KITV 4. November 5, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  15. "Maui Mayor Arakawa says he plans to run for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now. May 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  16. Pignataro, Anthony (April 3, 2018). "Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa to hold $1,000/person fundraiser at swanky Waikiki restaurant". MauiTime. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
  17. Daverta, Jobeth (Jan 21, 2018). "Hawaii minority leader Rep. Andria Tupola enters gubernatorial race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved Jan 26, 2018.
  18. Dible, Max (April 14, 2018). "Republican candidates for state office stump in Kona". West Hawaii Today.
  19. "The Hawaii Republican Party has a new chair". Retrieved 2018-04-05.
  20. Nagaoka, Ashley (May 12, 2017). "McDermott touts leadership, officialy [sic] enters 2018 race for governor". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
  21. Dayton, Kevin (August 29, 2017). "Rep. McDermott withdraws from governor's race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
  22. Beers, Axel (August 2, 2018). "MauiTime endorses Andria Tupola for governor (Republican) in 2018 Primary Election". Maui Time.
  23. "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  24. "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  25. "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  26. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  27. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  28. "2018 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. August 9, 2018.
  29. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  30. "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  31. "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  32. "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  33. "General Election 2018 Final Summary Report" (PDF). State of Hawaii. November 6, 2018. Retrieved December 20, 2018.
Official campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
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