2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election

The 2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of South Dakota. Incumbent Republican governor Dennis Daugaard was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term.

2018 South Dakota gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Kristi Noem Billie Sutton
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Larry Rhoden Michelle Lavallee
Popular vote 172,912 161,454
Percentage 51.0% 47.6%
County Results

Noem:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Sutton:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Governor before election

Dennis Daugaard
Republican

 Elected Governor

Kristi Noem
Republican

Elections in South Dakota
Federal government
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Republican candidate Kristi Noem won against Democratic candidate Billie Sutton in the closest gubernatorial election in South Dakota since 1986, when Republican candidate George S. Mickelson (51.8%) defeated Democratic nominee Ralph Lars Herseth (48.2%) with a 152,543 to 141,898 advantage.[1]

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Debates
Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
Kristi
Noem		 Marty
Jackley
South Dakota Newspaper Association May 5, 2018 [11] Invited Invited

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kristi
Noem		 Marty
Jackley		 Lora
Hubbel[12]		 Terry
LaFleur[12]		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon May 21–23, 2018 625 ± 4.5% 45% 44% – – 11%
Leverage Public Strategies May 4–7, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 38% 39% – – 24%
Clout Research (R) April 21–23, 2018 815 ± 3.4% 49% 37% – – 14%
Rockbridge Strategy (R) April 4, 2018 500 ± 2.9% 44% 33% – – 23%
Moore Information February 8, 2018 300 ± 6.0% 40% 35% 5% 2% 18%
New Age Consultants (R-LaFleur) November 3, 2017 509 ± 4.4% 22% 24% – 3% 51%

Results
Results by county
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kristi Noem 57,437 56.0
Republican Marty Jackley 45,069 44.0
Total votes 102,506 100

Democratic primary

Declared

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

Results
Libertarian convention delegate vote results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Kurt Evans 10 66.7
Libertarian C.J. Abernathey 5 33.3
Total votes 15 100.0

Constitution Party

Following an internal controversy within the Constitution Party of South Dakota over who was the legal party chair, Dan Lederman—individually and in his capacity as chair of the South Dakota Republican Party—sued Republican secretary of state Shantel Krebs to prevent her from certifying any Constitution Party nominees for the general-election ballot. For somewhat complex reasons, state circuit judge Patricia DeVaney ruled in favor of the Republican Party on August 17.[21][22]

G. Matt Johnson and Lora Hubbel—Constitution Party nominees for the state's at-large U.S. House seat and governor respectively—then sued Krebs in federal court on August 29 seeking ballot access for themselves and four other Constitution Party nominees. For various procedural reasons, federal district judge Roberto Lange ruled against the Constitution Party on October 1.[23][24][25]

Declared

Withdrawn

Independents

Declined

General election

Candidates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[32] Tossup October 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[33] Tilt R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Lean R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[35] Tossup October 30, 2018
Daily Kos[36] Lean R October 5, 2018
Fox News[37][lower-alpha 1] Lean R November 5, 2018
Politico[38] Tossup October 30, 2018
Governing[39] Tossup November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[40] Tossup October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[41] Tossup November 1, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements
Kristi Noem (R)
Federal officials
State officials
Individuals
Organizations
Billie Sutton (D)
Federal officials
State officials
County and local officials
Labor unions
  • South Dakota Education Association[51]
Organizations
  • Great Plains Tribal Chairman's Association[52]
Newspapers

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kristi
Noem (R)		 Billie
Sutton (D)		 Kurt
Evans (L)		 Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 851 – 45% 51% 2% – –
Emerson College November 1–4, 2018 514 ± 4.5% 48% 47% – 1% 5%
Mason-Dixon October 29–31, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 47% 44% 1% – 8%
Mason-Dixon October 18–22, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 45% 45% 1% – 9%
ALG Research (D-Sutton) September 20–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 3% – 10%
ALG Research (D-Sutton) July 19–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 46% 42% – – 13%
ALG Research (D-Sutton) October 4–9, 2017[55] 500 ± 4.4% 53% 40% – – –

Results
South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2018[56]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kristi Noem 172,912 50.97% -19.50%
Democratic Billie Sutton 161,454 47.60% +22.17%
Libertarian Kurt Evans 4,848 1.43% N/A
Total votes 339,214 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References
  1. Ellis, Jonathon (November 6, 2018). "Yes, South Dakota has had close governor races, but it's been awhile". Argus Leader. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  2. Tan, Tiffany (February 5, 2016). "Noem open to running for governor". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  3. Hagen, Lisa (November 14, 2016). "South Dakota rep. launches gubernatorial bid". The Hill. Retrieved November 14, 2016.
  4. "Marty Jackley moves $700K toward governor run". Argus Leader. Retrieved 2016-12-04.
  5. "SD Attorney General Marty Jackley Jumps into 2018 Governors Race | Radio 570 WNAX". Radio 570 WNAX. Retrieved 2016-12-04.
  6. Dockendorf, Randy (March 31, 2017). "Michels Says He Won't Run For Governor". Yankton Daily Press & Dakotan. Retrieved March 31, 2017.
  7. Ellis, Jonathan (February 14, 2015). "Noem, Mickelson, Jackley eye governor". Argus Leader. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  8. Holland, Jim (April 16, 2016). "Mark Mickelson visit could presage run for the governorship". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  9. "Mark Mickelson Says He Won't Run For Governor In 2018". KELOLAND News. Retrieved 22 May 2018.
  10. Epp, Todd (March 27, 2018). "UPDATE: Who is officially on ballot for Governor, House? Hubbel running as independent". KELO Newstalk. Retrieved June 5, 2018.
  11. "Kristi Noem, Marty Jackley participate in gubernatorial debate". www.argusleader.com.
  12. hypothetical Republican candidate, seeking Constitution Party nomination
  13. Ferguson, Dana (May 31, 2017). "Democrats, Sutton enter South Dakota governor race". Argus Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2017.
  14. Woster, Kevin (October 3, 2015). "Disaffected Democrats ready to return to Herseth Sandlin — in the governor's race". KELO-TV. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  15. Raposa, Megan (February 23, 2017). "Herseth Sandlin: 'I am done seeking political office'". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  16. Ellis, Jonathan (November 5, 2015). "Mayor says he'll need 'suicide watch' when term ends". Argus Leader. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  17. Tupper, Seth (November 10, 2015). "Beginning of the Huether for Governor tour?". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
  18. Anderson, Patrick (December 19, 2016). "Huether dumps Dems amid speculation of statewide run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  19. Bardash, Ellen (May 21, 2018). "Evans announces run for Libertarian Party nomination". Mitchell Daily Republic. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  20. Heidelberger, Cory (June 10, 2018). "Libertarian Party Resets, Picks Evans over Abernathey for Governor". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  21. Epp, Todd (August 15, 2018). "Constitution Party has two gubernatorial candidates--for now". KELO Newstalk. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  22. Askins, Dave (August 19, 2018). "Libertarians listed first on South Dakota ballots". Pierre Capital Journal. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  23. Peters, Anna (August 30, 2018). "South Dakota Candidates File Lawsuit To Get On November Ballot". KELO-TV. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  24. Mallory, Brady (September 27, 2018). "Federal Judge Hears Constitution Party Members' Lawsuit". KELO-TV. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  25. Winger, Richard (October 3, 2018). "South Dakota Constitution Party Asks Federal Court to Put Its Nominees on Ballot and to Resolve Intra-Party Dispute, but Court Declines". Ballot Access News. Retrieved October 5, 2018.
  26. Heidelberger, Cory (June 17, 2018). "Gortmaker Challenges LaFleur for Constitution Party Nomination for Governor". Dakota Free Press. Retrieved September 28, 2018.
  27. Sneve, Joe (March 7, 2017). "Huether moves hint at 2018 run". Argus Leader. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  28. Collen, Courtney (March 23, 2017). "Sitting down with Mayor Mike and Cindy Huether Sitting down with Mike and Cindy Huether". KSFY. Retrieved April 1, 2017.
  29. Ferguson, Dana (June 20, 2018). "Kristi Noem names long-time state lawmaker Larry Rhoden as running mate". Argus Leader. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  30. Ferguson, Dana (June 14, 2018). "Billie Sutton names running mate right before SD Democractic Party meet in Sioux Falls". Argus Leader. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  31. Venhuizen, Tony (June 10, 2018). "Libertarians and the modern history of minor party candidates for SD Governor". SoDak Governors. Retrieved October 6, 2018.
  32. "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  33. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  34. Kondik, Kyle (October 11, 2018). "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Midterm Update: North Dakota goes to Leans Republican, giving the Republicans a clearer edge in the Senate". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  35. "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  36. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  37. "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  38. "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  39. "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  40. "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  41. "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  42. "Trump endorses Noem in South Dakota". The Washington Post. September 7, 2018.
  43. Mike Pence. "PROUD to stand with @KristiNoem - the next Governor of the Great State of South Dakota! Go vote @KristiNoem tomorrow!". Twitter.
  44. Tupper, Seth (October 23, 2018). "Four days after saying he was undecided, Jackley endorses Noem". Rapid City Journal.
  45. Ivanka Trump. "I appreciate the great work of @RepKristiNoem to deliver massive tax cuts + much needed relief to hard working American families! She is a tireless champion for the great people of South Dakota! VOTE for Kristi Noem for Governor!". Twitter.
  46. "SD RIGHT TO LIFE ENDORSES NOEM". Kristi for Governor. August 29, 2018.
  47. "NRA endorses Kristi Noem for governor". KSFY. September 24, 2018.
  48. Mearhoff, Sarah (October 25, 2018). "SD bombshell: Poll shows governor's race dead heat in deep red state". The Globe. The Globe. Archived from the original on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  49. "Sutton Picks Up Republican Endorsements". KDLT. KDLT. October 25, 2018.
  50. Mercer, Bob (October 30, 2018). "Election Analysis: Democrats Seeking Republican Votes". KELO. Nexstar Media Group.
  51. Royal, Allison (September 11, 2018). "South Dakota Education Association Endorses Billie Sutton - KDLT". KDLT. KDLT-TV.
  52. "Sutton Gathers Input from Nine Tribes; Receives Endorsement of Tribal Chairmen | Lakota Country Times". www.lakotacountrytimes.com. Lakota Country Times. September 6, 2018.
  53. "Editorial: Billie Sutton makes sense for South Dakota". Argus Leader. Argus Leader. October 18, 2018.
  54. "OURS: Journal endorses Sutton for governor". Rapid City Journal. Rapid City Journal. October 19, 2018.
  55. Mehta, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Dhrumil (28 June 2018). "South Dakota Governor Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
  56. "South Dakota Secretary of State" (PDF). sdsos.gov.
Official campaign websites
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