2018 Oregon gubernatorial election

The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018 to elect the Governor of Oregon who would serve a full four-year term, after the 2016 special election, where Governor Kate Brown was elected to serve the last two years of a four-year term.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown ran for a full term. The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler to run against Brown; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Kate Brown was re-elected as governor in a rematch of the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State Election.

2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
November 6, 2018
 
Nominee Kate Brown Knute Buehler
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 934,498 814,988
Percentage 50.1% 43.7%
County results
Brown:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Buehler:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Kate Brown
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Kate Brown
Democratic

Elections in Oregon
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City of Portland
Portland elections

Democratic primary

Declared

Endorsements
Kate Brown
U.S. Senators
Organizations

Results
Results by county:
  Brown—80–90%
  Brown—70–80%
  Brown—60–70%
  Brown—50–60%
  Brown—40–50%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 324,541 81.9
Democratic Ed Jones 33,464 8.4
Democratic Candace Neville 29,110 7.4
Democratic Write-ins 8,912 2.3
Total votes 396,027 100.0

Republican primary

Declared

Withdrew
  • Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)[3][17]

Declined

Endorsements
Knute Buehler
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Individuals
  • Rob Harris, co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon[32]
  • Antoinette Hatfield, former First Lady of Oregon[33]
  • Phil Knight, businessman, co-founder of Nike[34][9]
Organizations
Newspapers
Greg Wooldridge
State legislators
Organizations

Debates
Host
network		 Date Link(s) Participants
Knute
Buehler		 Sam
Carpenter		 Greg
Wooldridge
KXL-FM May 11, 2018 [51] Invited Invited Invited

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Knute
Buehler		 Sam
Carpenter		 Lori
Chavez-DeRemer		 Greg
Wooldridge		 Other Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D) May 3–6, 2018 438 ± 4.7% 33% 25% – 8% – 33%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) April 19–22, 2018 1,013 ± 3.1% 39% 24% – 12% 6%[lower-alpha 1] 20%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) March 19–25, 2018 628 – 23% 23% – 4% – 50%
iCitizen September 13–28, 2017 168 ± 3.9% 28% – 8% 31% 6% 26%

Results
Results by county:
  Buehler—60–70%
  Buehler—50–60%
  Buehler—40–50%
  Buehler—<40%
  Carpenter—<40%
  Carpenter—40–50%
  Carpenter—50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Knute Buehler 144,103 45.9
Republican Sam Carpenter 90,572 28.8
Republican Greg C. Wooldridge 63,049 20.1
Republican Bruce Cuff 4,857 1.5
Republican Jeff Smith 4,691 1.5
Republican David Stauffer 2,096 0.7
Republican Write-ins 1,701 0.5
Republican Jonathan Edwards III 861 0.3
Republican Keenan Bohach 787 0.3
Republican Brett Hyland 755 0.2
Republican Jack W. Tacy 512 0.2
Total votes 313,984 100

Independent primary

Declared
  • Skye Allen[3]
  • Dan Pistoresi[3]
  • Patrick Starnes[3]

Results
Independent primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Write-ins 13,497 56.8
Independent Patrick Starnes 6,030 25.4
Independent Skye J. Allen 2,405 10.6
Independent Dan Pistoresi 1,846 7.8
Total votes 23,778 100.0

General election
Knute Buehler Campaign Logo

Debates

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
Governing[52] Tossup November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] Lean D November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[54] Tilt D November 1, 2018
The Cook Political Report[55] Tossup October 26, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[56] Likely D October 17, 2018
Daily Kos[57] Lean D October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[58] Tossup September 26, 2018
Fox News[59][lower-alpha 2] Lean D September 14, 2018

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Kate
Brown (D)		 Knute
Buehler (R)		 Patrick
Starnes (IPO)		 Other Undecided
Hoffman Research Group October 29–30, 2018 694 ± 3.7% 45% 42% 4% 2%[60] 7%
Emerson College October 26–28, 2018 747 ± 3.7% 47% 42% – 7% 4%
DHM Research October 4–11, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 40% 35% 4% 3%[61] 17%
Riley Research Associates September 24 – October 7, 2018 356 ± 5.0% 49% 45% 4% 3%[62] –
Clout Research (R) September 20–23, 2018 679 ± 3.8% 42% 41% – – –
Hoffman Research Group September 12–13, 2018 680 ± 3.8% 46% 36% 4% 2%[60] 12%
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC) September 6–11, 2018 2,831 ± 2.0% 41% 43% – – –
Clout Research (R) July 30–31, 2018 559 ± 4.1% 42% 43% – – 15%
Gravis Marketing July 16–17, 2018 770 ± 3.5% 45% 45% – – 10%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter) March 19–25, 2018 2,067 ± 2.2% 41% 46% – – 14%
DHM Research January 25–31, 2018 604 ± 4.0% 46% 29% – – 25%
Zogby Analytics November 10–12, 2017 508 ± 4.4% 39% 36% – – 25%
iCitizen September 13–28, 2017 645 ± 3.9% 41% 40% – 11% 8%

Results
Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018[63]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 934,498 50.05% -0.57%
Republican Knute Buehler 814,988 43.65% +0.20%
Independent Patrick Starnes 53,392 2.86% +0.42%
Libertarian Nick Chen 28,927 1.55% -0.77%
Constitution Aaron Auer 21,145 1.13% +0.13%
Progressive Chris Henry 11,013 0.59% N/A
n/a Write-ins 3,034 0.16% -0.01%
Total votes 1,866,997 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

Notes
  1. Bruce Cuff and Jeff Smith with 3%
  2. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

References
  1. KOIN 6 News Staff (November 8, 2016). "Kate Brown wins 2-year term as Oregon governor". KOIN 6 News. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  2. Borrud, Hillary (September 25, 2017). "Kate Brown announces she will seek re-election". The Oregonian. Retrieved September 26, 2017.
  3. Radnovich, Connor (March 7, 2018). "17 people running for Oregon governor, the most crowded field in two decades". Statesman Journal. Retrieved March 8, 2018.
  4. Warner, Gary A. (August 7, 2017). "Political parties rev up for 2018 election". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  5. Riley, John (November 14, 2017). "Victory Fund endorses Rich Madeleno for governor". Metro Weekly. Retrieved February 7, 2018.
  6. Lee, Steve (October 5, 2017). "HRC endorses Oregon Gov. Kate Brown for re-election". LGBT Weekly. Archived from the original on October 6, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  7. "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Oregon Governor Brown for Re-Election". Go Local PDX. October 5, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  8. "Oregon AFL-CIO Endorses Kate Brown for Governor". Oregon AFL-CIO. September 9, 2017. Archived from the original on October 15, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  9. Warner, Gary A. (October 9, 2017). "Capitol roundup: Oregon House seats up for grabs". The Bulletin. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  10. "Planned Parenthood Backs Oregon Governor's Election Bid". Oregon Patch. October 25, 2017. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  11. Warner, Gary A. (August 3, 2017). "Bend's Buehler running for governor". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 3, 2017.
  12. Achen, Paris (August 31, 2017). "A pro-Trump alternative in the governor's race?". Portland Tribune. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  13. "Bend businessman Sam Carpenter declares bid for governor". KTVZ. October 25, 2017. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  14. Achen, Paris (October 25, 2017). "Bend businessman Sam Carpenter to run for governor". East Oregonian. Retrieved October 28, 2017.
  15. "Oregon Secretary Of State". secure.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved 2018-02-18.
  16. Hubbard, Saul (February 3, 2018). "Portland political conservative makes late entry into Oregon gubernatorial race". The Register-Guard.
  17. Withycombe, Claire (April 26, 2018). "GOP gubernatorial candidate drops out of race". Portland Tribune.
  18. Jaquiss, Nigel (June 26, 2017). "First Potential GOP Challenger For Gov. Kate Brown Surfaces". Willamette Week. Retrieved July 9, 2017.
  19. Borrud, Hillary (October 10, 2017). "Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer will not run for Oregon governor in 2018". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  20. Achen, Paris (October 31, 2017). "Social conservatives seek governor's candidate". Portland Tribune. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  21. "House Minority Leader Mike McLane Rules Out Run for Governor in 2018". wweek.com. September 6, 2017.
  22. Lehman, Chris (November 8, 2016). "Oregon Elects Kate Brown As Governor". Oregon Public Broadcasting. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  23. Skelley, Geoffrey; Kondik, Kyle (April 20, 2017). "Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 6, 2017.
  24. Borrud, Hillary (August 23, 2017). "Secretary of State Dennis Richardson announces he will not run for governor". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  25. Warner, Gary A. (September 19, 2017). "Governor candidates at the Pendleton Round-Up". The Bulletin. Retrieved September 24, 2017.
  26. "Lawmakers Endorse Knute Buehler". Knute Buehler for Governor.
  27. "Letter: Hansell supports Buehler in GOP race". East Oregonian. April 27, 2018.
  28. Esquivel, Sal (August 8, 2017). "Esquivel: Knute Buehler is the Leader Oregon Needs". Oregon Catalyst. Retrieved November 6, 2017.
  29. "I'm proud to endorse fellow Roseburg native, friend and colleague Knute Buehler for Governor. He'll bring the..." Twitter. October 7, 2017.
  30. E. Werner Reschke. "I support Dr. Knute Buehler for Governor". Twitter.
  31. Warner, Gary A. (August 14, 2017). "Where were you in '82?". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  32. Knute Buehler. "Proud to have the endorsement of the Independent Party Co-Chair Rob Harris. We need new leadership to solve the big problems in our state. I will lead where Kate Brown has failed. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
  33. Knute Buehler. "Honored to have the support of a woman who has dedicated her life to making Oregon a better place and to call her a friend. #orpol #knuteforgov". Twitter.
  34. Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2017). "Phil Knight contributes $500,000 to Republican gubernatorial candidate Knute Buehler". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 19, 2017.
  35. "NFIB Oregon PAC Endorses Knute Buehler for Governor". NFIB. August 13, 2018.
  36. "Letter: Cattlemen's Association, Farm Bureau endorse Buehler". Capital Press. October 24, 2018.
  37. "Editorial: Vote Buehler in Republican primary". The Bulletin. April 23, 2018.
  38. "Editorial: Buehler the best choice for Oregon". The Bulletin. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 18, 2018.
  39. "WW's May 2018 Endorsements for Oregon Statewide Office". Willamette Week. April 25, 2018.
  40. "For governor: Brown, Buehler". The Register-Guard. April 28, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  41. "Oregon needs experience, decisive leadership to improve: Editorial endorsements". The Oregonian. April 29, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  42. "Editorial endorsement: Knute Buehler for Oregon governor". The Oregonian. October 14, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  43. "Our opinion: Vote for Buehler in GOP governor primary". Portland Tribune. May 7, 2018. Retrieved May 11, 2018.
  44. "Our Opinion: Buehler brings necessary tension". Portland Tribune. October 16, 2018. Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  45. McInally, Mike (October 17, 2018). "Editorial: Knute Buehler for governor of Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times.
  46. "Our View: Leadership needed for Oregon". The Daily Astorian. October 22, 2018.
  47. "Buehler for Governor". East Oregonian. October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
  48. "Our View: Buehler would bring change as governor". Blue Mountain Eagle. October 23, 2018.
  49. "Bill Post endorses Capt. Greg Wooldridge for governor". Wooldridge For Governor. April 18, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  50. "ENDORSEMENT: Right to Life endorses Wooldridge". Wooldridge For Governor. March 8, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2018.
  51. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WFU27n266k
  52. "Tracking the 2018 Governors Races". Retrieved July 22, 2018.
  53. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  54. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  55. "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  56. "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  57. "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  58. "RealClearPolitics - 2018 Election Maps - 2018 Governor Races". Retrieved August 3, 2018.
  59. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 22, 2018.
  60. Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
  61. Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
  62. Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%
  63. https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/results/november-2018-official-results.pdf
Official campaign websites
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