2018 Idaho gubernatorial election
The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term,[1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15.[2]
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 County Results Little: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Jordan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Idaho |
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Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970.[3]
Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.
A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 (439,830 votes). The previous high was 452,535 votes in 2010.
In addition, the Democratic ticket of Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum became the one of the first two tickets to have two women on it. The other was Hawaii's 2018 Republican nominees for Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns.
Republican primary
Declared
- Tommy Ahlquist, businessman and former emergency physician[4]
- Harley Brown, perennial candidate[5]
- Dalton Cannady[5]
- Raúl Labrador, U.S. Representative[6][7]
- Brad Little, Lieutenant Governor of Idaho[8]
- Lisa Marie, perennial candidate[9]
- Steve Pankey, Constitution nominee for governor in 2014[9]
Withdrew
Declined
- Butch Otter, incumbent governor[1]
- Lori Otter, First Lady of Idaho[12]
- Lawrence Wasden, Idaho Attorney General (running for reelection)[13]
Endorsements
Tommy Ahlquist
- U.S. Governors (current and former)
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and Republican nominee for President of the United States in 2012[14]
- Republican National Committee members
- Damond Watkins, Idaho Republican Party National Committeeman[15]
- Mayors
- Michael Barrett, Mayor of Challis, Idaho[5]
- Steve Bateman, Mayor of Nezperce, Idaho[5]
- Tammy de Weerd - Mayor of Meridian, Idaho[16]
- Kevin England, Mayor of Chubbuck, Idaho[5][17]
- Kip McGillivray, Mayor of Osburn, Idaho[5]
- Jason Richardson, Mayor of Rigby, Idaho[5]
- Darin Taylor, Mayor of Middleton, Idaho[5]
- Pete Weir, Mayor of Hagerman, Idaho[5]
- Individuals
- Charlie Kirk, founder and executive director of Turning Point USA[18]
- Candace Owens, communications director for Turning Point USA[18]
- Celebrities
- Kristin Armstrong, Olympic gold medalist[19]
Raúl Labrador
- U.S. Senators
- State legislators (current and former)
- Idaho State Senators: Cliff Bayer, Lori Den Hartog, Dean Mortimer, Tony Potts, Mary Souza, Steve Vick
- Idaho State Representatives: Vito Barbieri, Judy Boyle, Greg Chaney, Don Cheatham, Brent Crane, Gayann DeMordaunt, Sage Dixon, Barbara Ehardt, Terry Gestrin, Karey Hanks, Steve Harris, Mike Kingsley, Lynn Luker, Ron Mendive, Jason Monks, Dorothy Moon, Ron Nate, Joe Palmer, Heather Scott, Paul Shepherd, Thyra Stevenson, John Vander Woude, Christy Zito, Bryan Zollinger
- Former Idaho State Senators: Rod Beck,[22] Sheryl Nuxoll
- Former Idaho State Representatives: Ken Andrus,[23] Gayle Batt, Reed DeMordaunt, Steve Kren, Kathleen Sims, JoAn Wood
- Individuals
- Tyler Ricks, Idaho Young Republicans Treasurer and Ada GOP Precinct Committeeman
- David Bossie, deputy campaign manager for Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign[24]
- Dick Heller[25]
- Political Action Committees
- Protect Freedom PAC [20]
- Trade Associations
- Inland Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC) [26]
- Organizations
Brad Little
- U.S. Governors (current and former)
- Butch Otter, Governor of Idaho[29]
- Phil Batt, former Governor of Idaho[30]
- U.S. Senators
- U.S. Representatives
- Idaho: Mike Simpson
- Statewide elected officials (current and former)
- Jack Riggs, former Lieutenant Governor of Idaho[32]
- Brandon Woolf, Idaho State Controller
- Ben Ysursa, former secretary of state of Idaho
- State legislators (current and former)
- Scott Bedke, Speaker of the Idaho House of Representatives
- Brent Hill, President Pro Tempore of the Idaho Senate
- Idaho State Senators:Patti Anne Lodge[33] and Jeff Siddoway
- Idaho State Representatives: Megan Blanksma,[33] Stephen Hartgen,[34] Ryan Kerby,[35] and Eric Redman
- Former Idaho State Senators: Denton Darrington[35] and Jim Hammond[33]
- Former Idaho State Representatives: George Eskridge,[35] Lee Gagner,[33] and Bert Stevenson[35]
- Newspapers
- Idaho Mountain Express[36]
- Times-News[37]
- The Idaho Press-Tribune[38]
- Idaho Statesman[39]
- Organizations
- Idaho Cattle Association[40]
- Professional Fire Fighters of Idaho[41]
- Idaho Associated General Contractors[42]
- Idaho Loggers PAC[43]
- Idaho State Dental Association[44]
- Idaho Realtors[45]
- Idaho Grain Producers Association[46]
- Idaho Medical Association[47]
- National Federation of Independent Business[48]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tommy Ahlquist |
Raul Labrador |
Brad Little |
Lisa Marie |
Lawrence Wasden* |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | February 26 – March 15, 2018 | – | – | 21% | 25% | 17% | – | – | 6% | 31% |
| Dan Jones & Associates | November 8–15, 2017 | 619 | ± 3.9% | 14% | 17% | 21% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 36% |
| Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) | October 11–12, 2017 | 714 | ± 3.7% | 21% | 37% | 23% | – | – | – | 19% |
*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.
Results
Results by county:
Little
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Labrador
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
Ahlquist
- 40–50%
- 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brad Little | 72,518 | 37.3 | |
| Republican | Raúl Labrador | 63,460 | 32.6 | |
| Republican | Tommy Ahlquist | 50,977 | 26.2 | |
| Republican | Lisa Marie | 3,390 | 1.7 | |
| Republican | Steve Pankey | 2,701 | 1.4 | |
| Republican | Harley Brown | 874 | 0.4 | |
| Republican | Dalton Cannady | 528 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 194,448 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Declared
- A.J. Balukoff, businessman, member of the Boise School District board of trustees and nominee for governor in 2014[49]
- Paulette Jordan, former state representative[50]
- Peter Dill, organic farmer and business attorney[5]
Declined
- Michelle Stennett, Minority Leader of the Idaho Senate[51]
Endorsements
A. J. Balukoff
- U.S. Representatives (current and former)
- Idaho: Larry LaRocco, Walt Minnick, and Richard Stallings[52]
- Statewide officials (current and former)
- Betty Richardson, former U.S. Attorney for Idaho[52]
- Cathy Silak, former Idaho Supreme Court Justice[53]
- State legislators (current and former)
- Mat Erpelding, Idaho House Minority Leader[54]
- Idaho State Senators: Cherie Buckner-Webb,[54] Grant Burgoyne,[55] Maryanne Jordan,[56] Mark Nye,[57] and Janie Ward-Engelking,[56]
- Idaho State Representatives: Sue Chew,[56] Phylis King,[58] Hy Kloc,[59] John McCrostie,[58] Elaine Smith,[52] and Melissa Wintrow[54]
- Former Idaho State Senators: Ron Beitelspacher,[52] Mike Blackbird,[52] Gail Bray,[60] Mike Burkett,[61] Mary Lou Reed[62]
- Former Idaho State Representatives: John Rusche (and former House Minority Leader),[63] Liz Chavez,[64] Bill Killen,[65] Donna Pence,[52] Anne Pasley-Stuart,[66] James Ruchti,[52] and Dan Rudolph[67]
- Democratic National Committee officials (current and former)
- Jessi Boyer, Idaho National Committeewoman[68]
- Larry Kenck, former Chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party[52]
- Local and municipal officials (current and former)
- Tom Hearn, Coeur d'Alene School Board Member[69]
- Elfreda Higgins, Garden City Councilwoman (and former Idaho State Representative)[70]
- Mike Kennedy, former Coeur d'Alene City Councilman[71]
- Cari Miller, Lewiston City Councilwoman[72]
- Kristin Muchow, Board Member of the Greater Boise Auditorium District[72]
- Beth Oppenheimer, Boise School Board Member[73]
- Holli Woodings, Boise City Councilwoman (and former state representative)[52]
- Newspapers
- Organizations
Paulette Jordan
- State legislators (current and former)
- Former Idaho State Senators: John Peavey
- Individuals
- Organizations
Results
Results by county:
Jordan
- Jordan—80–90%
- Jordan—70–80%
- Jordan—60–70%
- Jordan—50–60%
- Jordan—40–50%
Jordan/Balukoff tie
Balukoff
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Paulette Jordan | 38,483 | 58.4 | |
| Democratic | A.J. Balukoff | 26,403 | 40.1 | |
| Democratic | Peter Dill | 964 | 1.5 | |
| Total votes | 65,850 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[79] | Safe R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[80] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[81] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[82] | Safe R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[84] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[85] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[86][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[87] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[88] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Debates
| Dates | Location | Little | Jordan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 15, 2018 | Boise, Idaho | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Brad Little (R) |
Paulette Jordan (D) |
Bev Boeck (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 838 | – | 55% | 39% | 3% | 2%[89] | – |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) | August 2–5, 2018 | 826 | ± 3.2% | 36% | 28% | – | 5% | 31% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) | July 12–15, 2018 | 1,061 | ± 2.8% | 38% | 28% | – | 7% | 26% |
| Dan Jones & Associates | June 22 – July 9, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 31% | 5% | 8%[90] | 13% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brad Little | 361,661 | 59.76% | +6.24% | |
| Democratic | Paulette Jordan | 231,081 | 38.19% | -0.36% | |
| Libertarian | Bev "Angel" Boeck | 6,551 | 1.08% | -2.99% | |
| Constitution | Walter L. Bayes | 5,787 | 0.96% | -0.23% | |
| Independent | Lisa Marie (write-in) | 51 | 0.0% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 605,131 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
References
- Russell, Betsy Z. (October 14, 2014). "Otter on running for 4th term: 'If I did, I'd be running as a bachelor, my wife told me'". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved July 7, 2016.
- Legislatures, National Conference of State. "2018 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- Richert, Kevin. "Democratic Candidates Split on Marijuana Legalization". Idaho Ed News. Retrieved February 14, 2019.
- Dentzer, Kevin (February 28, 2017). "Ahlquist makes it official: In campaign for governor, he starts 97-town tour this week". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved March 1, 2017.
- Russell, Betsy Z. (March 10, 2018). "Candidates flock to file for Idaho's May primary election". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved March 31, 2018.
- Russell, Betsy Z. (May 9, 2017). "Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador files to run for governor in 2018". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
- Richert, Kevin (October 26, 2017). "Christy Perry considers run for Congress". Idaho Education News. Retrieved October 30, 2017.
- Dentzer, Bill (June 28, 2016). "Brad Little, Idaho's governor-in-waiting, commits to 2018 run". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved July 7, 2016.
- "Candidate Treasurer List with Mailing Addresses for 2018" (PDF). Idaho Secretary of State. December 21, 2017. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
- Berg, Sven (August 24, 2016). "Fulcher announces he'll run for governor again in 2018". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
- Russell, Betsy Z. (June 15, 2017). "Fulcher drops out of guv race, switches to 1st CD, winning Labrador's endorsement". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved June 16, 2017.
- Spence, William L. (February 6, 2016). "Lori Otter says she doesn't plan to seek office". Lewiston Morning Tribune. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
- Russell, Betsy Z. "Wasden to seek another term as Attorney General, not join crowds running for governor, Congress". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved September 8, 2017.
- Kruesi, Kimberlee (October 25, 2017). "Mitt Romney Endorses Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho Governor". USNews.com. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
- Russell, Betsy Z. (September 19, 2017). "Ahlquist names Damond Watkins as campaign chairman". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
- "Meridian mayor named co-chairwoman for Ahlquist campaign". Meridian Press. September 19, 2017. Archived from the original on September 7, 2017. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
- "Gubernatorial Candidate Dr. Tommy Ahlquist Announces Campaign County Chairs 107 Business, Community & Conservative Leaders Join Campaign Team - Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho". Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho. September 14, 2017. Archived from the original on September 14, 2017. Retrieved September 19, 2017.
- Betsy Z. Russell (April 30, 2018). "Ahlquist wins endorsement from prominent young Trump backers Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk". The Spokesman-Review.
- Price, Mike (September 26, 2017). "Olympic gold medalist visits Idaho Falls to campaign for Ahlquist". East Idaho News.
- https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/idaho/articles/2017-11-01/labrador-attracts-endorsements-in-idahos-gubernatorial-race
- Russell, Betsy Z. (November 1, 2017). "Labrador announces Ted Cruz is endorsing him for governor of Idaho in '18". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved November 2, 2017.
- "Conservative Legislators Endorsement". Labrador for Governor. May 1, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
- "Former Rep. Ken Andrus Backs Raul Labrador". Labrador for Governor. May 9, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
- "Labrador wins variety of endorsements". Idaho Politics Weekly. May 6, 2018.
- "Labrador Releases Heller Endorsement and 200 Member Coalition". Labrador for Governor. April 20, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
- "IPC-ABC Endorses Raul Labrador for Idaho Governor". Archived from the original on June 26, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "Idaho Chooses Life Endorses Labradorfor Governor". Labrador for Governor. April 26, 2018. Archived from the original on May 13, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
- "BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance of Idaho Endorses…". Family Policy Alliance of Idaho. May 10, 2018.
- "Otter Endorses Little in Idaho Governor's Race". U.S. News & World Report. Associated Press. May 16, 2017. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
- "Brad Little should be the next governor of Idaho". Idaho State Journal. April 24, 2018. Retrieved May 5, 2018.
- Brown, Nathan (August 25, 2017). "Little to run for governor". MagicValley.com. Retrieved November 27, 2017.
- "Twitter". twitter.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "State Finance Organization". Brad Little for Idaho. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
- Dentzer, Bill (June 29, 2016). "Little to run for governor". MagicValley.com. Retrieved November 27, 2017.
- "Brad Little for Governor Campaign Announces Statewide 44 County Campaign Coordinators". Brad Little for Idaho (Press release). September 14, 2017. Retrieved November 27, 2017.
- "Primary election endorsements". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "Brad Little, A.J. Balukoff are best choices for governor". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- side, Balukoff on Democratic. "Endorsements: Little, Balukoff in the primaries for governor". Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "Pragmatic and responsible, Brad Little is ready to lead Idaho". Idaho Statesman. October 21, 2018.
- "Idaho cattlemen endorse Little for governor". Capital Press. November 16, 2016.
- "Professional Fire Fighters of Idaho Announce Endorsement". Brad Little for Governor.
- "Idaho Associated General Contractors Announces its Endorsement". Brad Little for Governor.
- "Idaho's Logging Contractors Support Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor". Brad Little for Governor.
- "The Idaho State Dental Association Supports Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor". Brad Little for Governor.
- "IDAHO REALTORS ENDORSE BRAD LITTLE". Coeur d'Alene Press. April 19, 2018.
- "Idaho Grain Producers Put Their Support Behind Brad Little". Brad Little for Governor.
- "Idaho Doctors Put their Support Behind Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor". Brad Little for Governor.
- "Small Business PAC Endorses Little for Governor". NFIB. September 10, 2018.
- Kruesi, Kimberlee (November 2, 2017). "Idaho Democrat announces another run for governor". KTVB. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
- Russell, Betsy Z. (December 7, 2017). "Rep. Paulette Jordan announces she'll run for governor as a Democrat". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
- Brown, Nathan (May 8, 2017). "Gov's race busy with more than a year till primary". Times-News. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
- "The three most recent Democratic US Congressmen from Idaho have joined together to endorse AJ Balukoff - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 29, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
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- "Senators Jordan and Ward-Engelking; Representative Chew Endorse A.J. Balukoff for Governor - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 12, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "Two More Idaho State Representatives Endorse A.J. Balukoff for Governor - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 15, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "AJ Balukoff for Governor" (PDF). AJ Balukoff for Governor. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- Burkett endorsement
- "AJ Balukoff for Governor" (PDF). AJ Balukoff for Governor. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- Russell, Betsy Z. (February 6, 2018). "Rusche endorses Balukoff over Jordan in Dems gubernatorial primary". The Spokesman Review. Retrieved February 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "Endorsements - AJ Balukoff for Governor". Archived from the original on April 15, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- Locher, John (January 24, 2018). "Cher endorses Paulette Jordan for Idaho governor". Moscow-Pullman Daily News. Retrieved February 20, 2018.
- "Who's With Paulette? - Jordan for Governor". Archived from the original on May 10, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- Kruesi, Kimberley (March 15, 2018). "Democratic Governor Candidates Begin Collecting Endorsements". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
- "Paulette Jordan". Our Revolution. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
- "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
- "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
- "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
- "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
- Walter Bayes with 2%
- Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5%
External links
- Debates
- Official campaign websites
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