2018 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's nominee for Vice President two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson.[1]

2018 United States Senate election in Virginia

November 6, 2018
Turnout59.14%
 
Nominee Tim Kaine Corey Stewart
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,910,370 1,374,313
Percentage 57.0% 41.0%

County and Independent City Results
Kaine:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Stewart:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Tim Kaine
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

Democratic primary

Declared

Republican primary

Declared

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Freitas
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State senators
State delegates
Local Officials
Notable Individuals
Party leadership
  • Morton Blackwell, Republican National Committeeman for Virginia[57]
  • Kishore Thota, chairman of the Young Republican Federation of Virginia[58]
Organizations
News Publications
  • Arlington Sun Gazette[65]
  • The Reagan Battalion[66]
  • 71 Republic[67]
E. W. Jackson
Cabinet-level officials
U.S. governors
Statewide office holders
Local officials
  • Suzy Kelly, Chesapeake city councilwoman, chairman of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, CEO of Jo-Kell
Notable individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Nick
Freitas
E. W.
Jackson
Corey
Stewart
Other Undecided
Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart) May 14–18, 2018 355 ± 5.2% 9% 5% 32%
Christopher Newport University February 5–28, 2018 422 ± 2.5% 6% 7% 16% 5%[72] 66%

Results

Results by county:
  Stewart—70–80%
  Stewart—60–70%
  Stewart—50–60%
  Stewart—40–50%
  Stewart—<40%
  Tie
  Freitas—<40%
  Freitas—40–50%
  Freitas—50–60%
  Freitas—60–70%
  Freitas—70–80%
Republican primary results[73]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Corey Stewart 136,610 44.87%
Republican Nick Freitas 131,321 43.14%
Republican Earl Jackson, Sr. 36,508 11.99%
Total votes 304,439 100%

Third party candidates

General election

The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota.[79] All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[80] Safe D September 28, 2018
Inside Elections[81] Safe D January 5, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[82] Safe D February 7, 2018
Fox News[83] Likely D July 9, 2018
CNN[84] Safe D July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[85] Safe D August 14, 2018

Debates/Townhalls

Host
network/sponsors
Date Link(s) Participants
Tim
Kaine (D)
Corey
Stewart (R)
Matt
Waters (L)
PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association July 21, 2018 Invited Invited
Hampton University/Liberty University September 20, 2018 Invited Invited
WRC-TV September 26, 2018 Invited Invited
Liberty University October 3, 2018 Invited Invited

Endorsements

Corey Stewart (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Notable individuals
Tim Kaine (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Matt Waters (L)
Local Officials
  • Joe Walton, Libertarian nominee for VA-07 in 2018 and former chairman of the Powhatan County Board of Supervisors[117]
Party Leadership
Notable Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Corey
Stewart (R)
Matt
Waters (L)
Other Undecided
University of Mary Washington/SSRS September 4–9, 2018 512 LV ± 5.8% 52% 36% 5% 0% 4%
704 RV ± 5.0% 51% 33% 5% 1% 7%
801 A ± 4.6% 49% 30% 6% 1% 9%
Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R) August 22–24, 2018 1,119 ± 2.8% 50% 46% 4%
Roanoke College August 12–19, 2018 512 ± 4.3% 51% 34% 4% 11%
Virginia Commonwealth University July 10–30, 2018 757 ± 3.6% 49% 26% 5% 20%
Quinnipiac University June 21–25, 2018 1,082 ± 3.7% 54% 36% 0% 9%
Roanoke College May 20–30, 2018 555 ± 4.2% 44% 33% 23%
Christopher Newport University February 5–28, 2018 1,562 ± 2.5% 56% 32% 1% 11%
University of Mary Washington/PSRAI September 5–12, 2017 562 LV ± 5.2% 53% 36% 7%
867 RV ± 4.1% 54% 39% 1% 4%

Results

Senator Kaine was declared the victor as soon as the polls closed. His margin of victory was just about the same as what the polls indicated they would be.

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2018[125]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tim Kaine (incumbent) 1,910,370 57.00% +4.17%
Republican Corey Stewart 1,374,313 41.01% -5.91%
Libertarian Matt Waters 61,565 1.84% +1.84%
Write-in 5,125 0.15% N/A
Total votes 3,351,373 100% N/A
Democratic hold

See also

  • United States House of Representatives election in Virginia, 2018

References

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  88. "With Corey Stewart atop the ticket, Virginia Republicans are in turmoil".
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  99. McEachin, Donald. "I hope to see @Vangie4Congress, @ElaineLuriaVA, @LeslieCockburn, @JenniferForVA, @SpanbergerVA07, @flacc4congress, & @JenniferWexton join @timkaine, @markwarnerva, @ElectConnolly, @BobbyScott4VA3, @DonBeyerVA and me in Congress! #BlueWave". Twitter.
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Official campaign websites
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