2020 United States Senate election in Idaho

The 2020 United States Senate election in Idaho was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Idaho, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch won reelection to a third term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Paulette Jordan, who, percentage wise, had the worst performance of a Democratic senatorial candidate for this seat since 2002. However, Risch also performed nearly three points worse than he did in 2014.

2020 United States Senate election in Idaho

November 3, 2020

Nominee Jim Risch Paulette Jordan Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 538,446 285,864 Percentage 62.6% 33.2%

County Results Risch:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Jordan:      50–60%      60–70%

Republican primary

Nominee

• Jim Risch, incumbent U.S. Senator[1]

Results

Republican primary results[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jim Risch (incumbent)	200,184	100.00%
Total votes			200,184	100.00%

Democratic primary

Nominee

• Paulette Jordan, former state representative and nominee for Governor of Idaho in 2018[3]

Eliminated in primary

• James Vandermaas, former law enforcement officer and candidate for Idaho's 1st congressional district in 2018[4]

Withdrawn

• Nancy Harris, businesswoman[5] (endorsed Paulette Jordan)[6]
• Travis Oler, farmer and U.S. Army veteran (running for state legislature)[7] (endorsed James Vandermaas)[8]

Declined

• A.J. Balukoff, Boise school district board member, nominee for Governor of Idaho in 2014, and candidate for Governor of Idaho in 2018[9] (endorsed James Vandermaas)
• Mark Nye, state senator[9]
• Michelle Stennett, minority leader of the Idaho Senate[9]

Endorsements

Paulette Jordan

Individuals

• Aaron Paul, actor known for Breaking Bad[10]

Publications

• Idaho Statesman[11]

Results

County results:

  Jordan—>90%

  Jordan—80-90%

  Jordan—70-80%

Democratic primary results[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Paulette Jordan	72,778	85.70%
	Democratic	James Vandermaas	12,145	14.30%
Total votes			84,923	100.00%

Other candidates

Nominee

• Ray Writz[12]

Declared

• Natalie Fleming[13]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[14]	Safe R	August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[15]	Safe R	September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16]	Safe R	August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[17]	Safe R	August 31, 2020
Politico[18]	Safe R	September 9, 2020
RCP[19]	Safe R	September 17, 2020
Niskanen[20]	Safe R	September 15, 2020
DDHQ[21]	Safe R	September 16, 2020
538[22]	Safe R	September 18, 2020

Endorsements

Paulette Jordan (D)

U.S Vice Presidents

• Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for President[23]

Individuals

• Aaron Paul, actor known for Breaking Bad[10]

Organizations

• Center for Biological Diversity[24]
• DSCC[25]
• Emily’s List[26]
• National Education Association[27]
• National Women's Political Caucus[28]

Publications

• Idaho Statesman [29]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Jim Risch (R)	Paulette Jordan (D)	Other	Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 1]	August 29 – September 1, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	53%	28%	8%[lower-alpha 2]	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Idaho, 2020[30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Jim Risch (incumbent)	538,446	62.62%	-2.71%
	Democratic	Paulette Jordan	285,864	33.25%	-1.42%
	Independent	Natalie Fleming	25,329	2.95%	N/A
	Constitution	Ray Writz	10,188	1.18%	N/A
Total votes			859,827	100.0%
	Republican hold

See also

• 2020 Idaho elections

Notes

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for the Women's Liberation Front.

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Another candidate" with 8%

References

1. Russell, Betsy (August 12, 2019). "Risch announces re-election bid for 3rd Senate term in 2020". Idaho Press. Retrieved August 12, 2019.
2. "OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS". State of Idaho - Elections Department. Retrieved August 28, 2020.
3. Jennifer Bendery. "Idaho Democrat Paulette Jordan Is Running For Senate", HuffPost, February 7, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
4. "Third Dem announces bid for Risch's Senate seat in 2020". Idaho Press. October 7, 2019.
5. "Harris withdraws from Idaho Senate race". Kootenai Valley Times. February 13, 2020.
6. "Paulette Jordan on Instagram: "Nancy Harris has a strong voice and the best of intentions for Idaho. I'm very grateful for her support. Thank you, @nancyharrisforsenate…"". Instagram.
7. "Travis Oler Discontinues US Senate Campaign and Runs for Idaho State Legislature". Travis Oler for Idaho. Retrieved March 14, 2020.
8. "Log In or Sign Up to View". www.facebook.com. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
9. Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
10. Miller, Kevin (February 14, 2020). "Aaron Paul endorses Jordan Paulette". Kido Talk Radio. Retrieved April 25, 2020.
11. "Statesman endorses Democrat primary candidate for U.S. Senate". Idaho Statesman. May 10, 2020.
12. "WRITZ, RAY - Candidate overview". FEC.gov.
13. "Natalie M Fleming for United States Senate – Partisan Free Independent Candidate for United States Congress for Idaho".
14. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
15. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved July 17, 2020.
16. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
17. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
18. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
19. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
20. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
21. "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
22. Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
23. "Biden endorses Idaho's Paulette Jordan for U.S. Senate". KHQ.
24. https://centeractionfund.org/2020-endorsements/#ID
25. "DSCC Endorses Paulette Jordan in Idaho Senate Race". DSCC. July 23, 2020.
26. https://www.emilyslist.org/candidates/paulette-jordan-20
27. "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
28. "Endorsed candidates". NWPC. Retrieved July 26, 2020.
29. https://www.instagram.com/p/CF8BoAkHNgT/
30. "2020 General Election Results – Statewide". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 18, 2020.

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Idaho", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Idaho: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Idaho". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Idaho at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Natalie Fleming (I) for Senate
• Paulette Jordan (D) for Senate
• Jim Risch (R) for Senate
• Ray Writz (C) for Senate