2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the five U.S. Representatives from the state of Oklahoma, one from each of the state's five congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma
November 3, 2020
All 5 Oklahoma seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 4 1
Seats won 5 0
Seat change 1 1
Popular vote 1,044,175 475,731
Percentage 67.31% 30.66%
Swing 5.34% 5.69%
Results:
     Republican hold
     Republican gain
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District 1
See also: Oklahoma's 1st congressional district

The 1st district is located in the Tulsa metropolitan area and includes Creek, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner and Washington counties. The incumbent is Republican Kevin Hern, was elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee
Nominee
  • Kojo Asamoa-Caesar, entrepreneur[2]
Eliminated in primary
  • Mark A. Keeter, businessman[3]

Endorsements
Kojo Asamoa-Caesar
Organizations
  • #VoteProChoice[4]

Primary results
Democratic primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kojo Asamoa-Caesar 34,868 63.6
Democratic Mark A. Keeter 19,924 36.4
Total votes 54,792 100.0

Declared
  • Evelyn L. Rogers, perennial candidate[3]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Oklahoma's 1st congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Hern (incumbent) 213,700 63.7
Democratic Kojo Asamoa-Caesar 109,641 32.7
Independent Evelyn L. Rogers 12,130 3.6
Total votes 335,471 100.0
Republican hold

District 2
See also: Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district encompasses eastern Oklahoma including Choctaw Country, Muskogee and Tahlequah. The incumbent is Republican Markwayne Mullin, who was re-elected with 65.0% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Endorsements
Markwayne Mullin
U.S. Presidents

Primary results
Republican primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin (incumbent) 53,149 79.9
Republican Joseph Silk 8,445 12.7
Republican Rhonda Hopkins 4,917 7.4
Total votes 66,511 100.0

Nominee
  • Danyell Lanier, project analyst[3]

Declared
  • Richie Castaldo, Libertarian nominee for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district in 2018[3]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Markwayne Mullin (incumbent) 216,511 75.0
Democratic Danyell Lanier 63,472 22.0
Libertarian Richie Castaldo 8,544 3.0
Total votes 288,527 100.0
Republican hold

District 3
See also: Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district

The 3rd district encompasses Northwestern Oklahoma, taking in the Oklahoma Panhandle, Ponca City, Pawnee, Stillwater, as well as the Osage Nation. The incumbent is Republican Frank Lucas, who was re-elected with 73.9% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee
Withdrew

Nominee
  • Zoe Midyett, rancher[17]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Frank D. Lucas (incumbent) 242,677 78.5
Democratic Zoe Midyett 66,501 21.5
Total votes 309,178 100.0
Republican hold

District 4
See also: Oklahoma's 4th congressional district

The 4th district is located in South Central Oklahoma and takes in some of the Oklahoma City suburbs, including those in Canadian County and Cleveland County. The incumbent is Republican Tom Cole, who was re-elected with 63.1% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • James Taylor, teacher and candidate for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2016 and 2018[3]
  • Trevor Sipes, businessman[3]
  • Gilbert O. Sanders, mental health professional[3]

Primary results
Republican primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Cole (incumbent) 55,699 76.3
Republican James Taylor 11,081 15.2
Republican Trevor Sipes 4,357 6.0
Republican Gilbert O. Sanders 1,833 2.5
Total votes 72,970 100.0
Nominee
  • Mary Brannon, retired educator and nominee for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2018[3]
Eliminated in primary
  • John D. Argo, metalworker[3]
  • David R. Slemmons, retired librarian[3]

Withdrew
  • Wyndi Brown, activist and entrepreneur[18]
  • Wesley Forbes, energy program assistant[19]

Primary results
Democratic primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Brannon 32,199 63.9
Democratic David R. Slemmons 9,793 19.4
Democratic John D. Argo 8,436 16.7
Total votes 50,428 100.0

Declared
  • Bob White, Libertarian nominee for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2016

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[6] Safe R July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[7] Safe R June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R July 2, 2020
Politico[9] Safe R April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[10] Safe R June 3, 2020
RCP[11] Safe R June 9, 2020
Niskanen[12] Safe R June 7, 2020

Results
Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Cole (incumbent) 213,096 67.8
Democratic Mary Brannon 90,459 28.8
Libertarian Bob White 10,803 3.4
Total votes 314,358 100.0
Republican hold

District 5
See also: Oklahoma's 5th congressional district

The 5th district is based in Oklahoma City and its surrounding suburbs. The incumbent is Democrat Kendra Horn, who flipped the district and was elected with 50.7% of the vote in 2018.[1]

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Tom Guild, perennial candidate[20]

Endorsements
Tom Guild
Organizations
Kendra Horn
Individuals
Organizations

Primary results
Democratic primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kendra Horn (incumbent) 60,168 85.7
Democratic Tom Guild 10,050 14.3
Total votes 70,218 100.0
Nominee
Eliminated in runoff
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
  • Dan Belcher, entrepreneur[36]
  • David Greene, former horse stall cleaner[37]
  • Merideth VanSant, businesswoman[38]
Declined

Endorsements
Stephanie Bice
Organizations
Terry Neese (eliminated)
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
  • RightNOW Women PAC[52]
David Hill (eliminated)
Individuals
Organizations
  • Conservative Leadership PAC[53]
  • FRC Action[55]

Primary results
Republican primary results [5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Terry Neese 24,828 36.5
Republican Stephanie Bice 17,292 25.4
Republican David Hill 12,922 19.0
Republican Janet Barresi 6,799 10.0
Republican Jake A. Merrick 1,736 2.6
Republican Michael Ballard 1,691 2.5
Republican Miles V. Rahimi 967 1.4
Republican Shelli Landon 912 1.3
Republican Charles Tuffy Pringle 908 1.3
Total votes 68,055 100.0

Runoff results
Republican primary runoff results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Stephanie Bice 27,402 52.9
Republican Terry Neese 24,369 47.1
Total votes 51,771 100.0

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[57] Tossup September 11, 2020
Inside Elections[58] Tossup September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[59] Lean D November 2, 2020
Politico[60] Tossup September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[61] Tossup April 29, 2020
RCP[62] Tossup September 14, 2020
Niskanen[12] Tossup June 7, 2020

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kendra
Horn (D)		 Stephanie
Bice (R)		 Other/
Undecided
Change Research October 29 – November 1, 2020 607 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 2]
Amber Integrated October 22–25, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 44% 49% –
Sooner Poll October 15–20, 2020 943 (LV) – 49% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 3]
Cole, Snodgrass & Associates/SoonerPoll September 25–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 4]
SoonerPoll September 2–10, 2020 318 (LV) ±  5.49% 44% 45% 11%
Normington, Petts & Associates (D)[upper-alpha 1] August 31 – September 3, 2020 400 (LV) ±  4.9% 52% 44% 4%[lower-alpha 3]
DCCC Targeting & Analytics Department (D)[upper-alpha 2] August 5–9, 2020 500 (LV) ±  4.4% 51% 46% 11%
Hypothetical polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

with Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin of
error		 Kendra
Horn (D)		 Generic Republican Undecided
Amber Integrated June 1–4, 2020 95 (LV) – 42% 41% 18%
Amber Integrated March 5–8, 2020 89 (LV) – 40% 44% 16%
Amber Integrated (R) December 18–20, 2019 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 45% 15%
with Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin of
error		 Kendra
Horn (D)		 Generic Opponent Other Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 3] December 3–4, 2019 300 (LV) ± 5.66% 37% 49%[lower-alpha 5] 2%[lower-alpha 6] 12%[lower-alpha 7]
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin of
error		 Generic Democrat Generic Republican Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[upper-alpha 3] December 3–4, 2019 300 (LV) ± 5.66% 42% 49% 9%[lower-alpha 8]

Results
Oklahoma's 5th congressional district, 2020[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Stephanie Bice 158,191 52.1
Democratic Kendra Horn (incumbent) 145,658 47.9
Total votes 303,849 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Did not vote, "Don't recall," and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  3. Undecided with 4%
  4. Undecided with 6%
  5. "It is time to give a new person a chance to do better" with 49% as opposed to "Horn has performed her job as Congresswoman well enough to deserve re-election"
  6. "Refused" with 2%
  7. "Unsure/depends" with 12%
  8. "Undecided" with 7%; "don't know/refused" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Horn's campaign.
  2. Poll conducted for the DCCC.
  3. Poll sponsored by Parscale, the manager of Trump's 2020 presidential campaign

References
  1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  2. "Kojo Asamoa-Caesar Announces Bid for Oklahoma's First Congressional District". The Black Wall Street Times. November 4, 2019. Retrieved November 25, 2019.
  3. Krehbiel, Randy (June 14, 2020). "Congressional primaries include Democrats dueling for 1st District". Tulsa World.
  4. "Candidates". #VoteProChoice. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  5. "OK Election Results". Oklahoma Secretary of State. Retrieved June 30, 2020.
  6. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  7. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  8. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  9. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  10. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  11. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  12. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020.
  13. "November 3, 2020 - Official Results". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  14. Forman, Carmen (October 11, 2019). "State senator Joseph Silk seeks to unseat Markwayne Mullin". The Oklahoman. Retrieved October 14, 2019.
  15. "Trump went on a mini-endorsement spree on Tuesday". Politico. December 18, 2019.
  16. "Joshua Jantz - Unleash Freedom". Joshua Jantz.
  17. "Race shapes up for Garfield County sheriff". Enid News & Eagle. April 8, 2020.
  18. "Wyndi Brown for Congress – Oklahoma District 4".
  19. https://www.wesleyforbesforcongress.com/
  20. "Tom Guild, Progressive Democrat". Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  21. Klein, Howie (March 7, 2020). "Blue America Congressional Endorsement In Oklahoma: Tom Guild". Blue America. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  22. "Page by Page Report Display (Page 623 of 678)".
  23. "U.S. House Candidates". EMILY's List.
  24. Muller, Tiffany (March 20, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Rep. Kendra Horn for Re-Election". End Citizens United.
  25. Acosta, Lucas (May 18, 2020). "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 40 House, 5 Senate Pro-Equality Leaders". Human Rights Campaign.
  26. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
  27. "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  28. Casteel, Chris (April 24, 2019). "Bice to challenge Horn for congressional seat". The Oklahoman. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  29. Felder, Ben (April 25, 2019). "Neese becomes second Republican to seek 5th District seat". The Oklahoman. Retrieved April 25, 2019.
  30. Van Risseghem, David (April 27, 2019). "Neese & Ballard Join Race For Congress". Sooner Politics. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  31. "Number of Oklahoma Republicans seeking to unseat Horn grows". Associated Press. October 2, 2019. Retrieved October 2, 2019.
  32. Snyder, Dan (June 17, 2020). "Meet the candidate: Shelli Landon (R-OK5)". FOX 25.
  33. Metzer, Steve (June 3, 2020). "GOP candidates criticize Horn, tout conservative values in Journal Record forum". The Journal Record.
  34. Snyder, Dan (June 18, 2020). "Meet the candidate: Charles "Tuffy" Pringle (R-OK5)". Fox 25. Retrieved August 13, 2020.
  35. Casteel, Chris (February 23, 2020). "GOP Hopefuls Speak To Crowd Eager To Reclaim Congressional Seat". The Oklahoman. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  36. "Home". Dan The Man for Congress.
  37. "Headquarters". Greene for Congress.
  38. Staff, Edmond Sun (May 29, 2019). "VanSant announces candidacy for 5th Congressional District". The Edmond Sun. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
  39. Riley, Patrick (April 25, 2019). "Kendra Horn's first challenger steps into the ring..." The Lost Ogle. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
  40. Bruno, Jessica (April 24, 2019). "War of words on display between sheriff, commissioner". Oklahoma News 4. Retrieved April 26, 2019.
  41. Casteel, Chris (October 10, 2019). "Cornett won't seek congressional seat, sources say". The Oklahoman. Retrieved October 10, 2019.
  42. Mutnick, Ally (November 26, 2018). "Inside the Midterms' Biggest House Upset". National Journal. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  43. Hermes, Grant (January 21, 2019). "Rep. Horn Being Targeted In 2020 Republican Campaign Plan". KWTV. Retrieved February 15, 2019.
  44. https://city-sentinel.com/2019/07/contractors-group-supports-stephanie-bice-in-fifth-district-congressional-race/
  45. https://elevate-pac.com/endorsements/
  46. https://www.empower.org/post/empower-america-project-endorses-10-congressional-candidates
  47. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/491061-conservative-womens-group-unveils-new-congressional-endorsements
  48. https://www.biceforcongress.com/meet-stephanie-bice/
  49. "Endorsements". Terry Neese for Congress. Archived from the original on August 17, 2020. Retrieved January 29, 2021.
  50. https://www.facebook.com/TerryNeeseForCongress/posts/2379858785678007
  51. https://www.muskogeepolitico.com/2020/05/former-edmond-mayor-saundra-naifeh.html
  52. http://www.rightnowwomen.org/terry_neese_endorsement_may2019
  53. Faught, Jamison (May 27, 2020). "Morton Blackwell's Conservative Leadership PAC endorses Hill for Congress". Muskogee Politico. Retrieved January 29, 2021.
  54. http://www.okenergytoday.com/2019/12/hamm-throws-support-to-gop-congressional-candidate-against-rep-horn/
  55. https://davidhillforok.com/press-releases/david-hill-endorsed-by-family-research-council-action-pac/
  56. "OK Election Results". Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved August 25, 2020.
  57. "2020 House Race Ratings for September 11, 2020". The Cook Political Report. September 11, 2020.
  58. "2020 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. September 4, 2019.
  59. "2020 House race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. September 3, 2020.
  60. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. September 9, 2020.
  61. "House Oklahoma - 05". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved April 29, 2020.
  62. "Battle for House 2020". RCP. September 14, 2020.
Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates
Official campaign websites for 5th district candidates
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