2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

November 3, 2020
Turnout	70.93%[1]
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 20 0 Popular vote 3,458,229 3,377,674 Percentage 50.01% 48.84%
County results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   80–90% Trump   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Although Trump had won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin of 0.72%, Biden was able to reclaim the state, winning it by 1.17%. Because of the way the state counted in-person ballots first, Trump started with a wide lead on election night. However, over the next few days, Biden greatly closed the margin due to outstanding votes from Democratic-leaning areas, most notably Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as mail-in ballots from all parts of the state which strongly favored him. On the morning of November 6, election-calling organization Decision Desk HQ forecast that Biden had won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes, and with them the election.[4] The following morning, November 7, during a Trump campaign press conference outside a Philadelphia landscaping business,[5] nearly all major news organizations followed suit and called Pennsylvania for Biden, proclaiming him President-elect.[6]

After worse than expected results for Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, Pennsylvania had been expected to have a close result again in the 2020 election.[7] Throughout the campaign however, polls generally showed a Biden lead. Prior to election day 14 of the 15 news organizations considered that Pennsylvania was leaning towards Biden.

State Republicans sought to require that only mail-in ballots received by Election Day be counted. The Commonwealth's Supreme Court rejected their demands, deciding that, due to probable delays due to the ongoing coronavirus and U.S. Postal Service crises, ballots received up to three days after Election Day would also be counted.[8] Republicans then appealed the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. Supreme Court justices produced a 4–4 tie (as the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat remained vacant when the ruling was issued), with Chief Justice John Roberts siding with the three liberal justices, allowing the state supreme court decision to stand.[8]

One key to Biden's success in the state was his improvement on Hillary Clinton's margins in the large Philadelphia-area suburban counties: he won Bucks by 3.60% more than Clinton did, Delaware by 4.38% more, Montgomery by 4.80% more, and Chester—which Mitt Romney had narrowly won just eight years prior—by 6.60% more. At the same time, he reclaimed two of the three large industrial counties which had voted Democratic for at least six consecutive elections before Trump flipped them in 2016: Erie and Northampton. While Trump prevailed in the third, Luzerne County, he did so by a reduced margin with respect to 2016; and Biden increased the margin of victory in his birth county, Lackawanna County, which Trump had nearly flipped in 2016. Biden even halted the four-election Democratic slide in formerly traditionally Democratic Westmoreland County, where, before 2020, Al Gore had been the last Democrat to improve on the previous nominee's vote share (and which had given Trump his margin in the state in 2016). However, Biden's vote share in Philadelphia County actually declined slightly compared to Hillary Clinton's, although he still outperformed either Al Gore in 2000 or John Kerry in 2004 in the county.

Pennsylvania is tied for the longest perfect streak with Michigan and Wisconsin; none of the three have backed the losing candidate since after 2004, when all three backed Democratic nominee John Kerry--albeit narrowly--but incumbent President George W. Bush was re-elected. Pennsylvania weighed in for this election as 3.28% more Republican than the national average. This is the second consecutive presidential election in which Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation; previously, it had not done so since 1948.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020, also originally joining several northeastern states in holding primaries on the same date, including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island.[9] On March 26, Pennsylvania joined several other states in moving its primary to June 2 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[10]

Republican primary

Even though the Republican National Committee mailed Pennsylvania voters encouraging mail-in voting, describing it as a "convenient and secure” option, most Republicans expressed opposition to the prospect. Earlier, the Republican-controlled House blocked a proposal to mail every Pennsylvanian a mail-in ballot application. This was in response to President Trump's skepticism of the practice, expressing concern mail-in voting may result in voter fraud that would potentially benefit the Democratic Party.[11]

2020 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary[12]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[13]
Donald Trump	1,053,616	92.1%	34
Bill Weld	69,427	6.1%	0
Rocky De La Fuente	20,456	1.8%	0
Total	1,143,499	100%	34

Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 34 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention (the state also has 54 unpledged delegates).[13]

Democratic primary

2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary[14]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[15]
Joe Biden	1,264,624	79.26%	151
Bernie Sanders (suspended)	287,834	18.04%	35
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	43,050	2.70%	0
Total	1,595,508	100%	186

Green Caucus

The Green Caucus was held during April 2020 and was won by Howie Hawkins.[16]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Princeton Electoral Consortium[17]	Safe D (flip)	October 5, 2020
The Cook Political Report[18]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
Inside Elections[19]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
Politico[21]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
RCP[22]	Tossup	October 5, 2020
Niskanen[23]	Likely D (flip)	October 5, 2020
CNN[24]	Lean D (flip)	October 23, 2020
The Economist[25]	Likely D (flip)	October 5, 2020
CBS News[26]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
270towin[27]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
ABC News[28]	Likely D (flip)	October 5, 2020
NPR[29]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
NBC News[30]	Lean D (flip)	October 5, 2020
538[31]	Likely D (flip)	October 5, 2020

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	October 22 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	49.4%	45.7%	4.9%	Biden +3.7
Real Clear Politics	October 29 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	48.7%	47.5%	3.8%	Biden +1.2
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	50.2%	45.6%	4.2%	Biden +4.6
Average			49.4%	46.3%	4.3%	Biden +3.1

2020 polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	Nov 1–2	499 (LV)	± 4.3%	49%[lower-alpha 3]	48%	1%	-	0%[lower-alpha 4]	0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2	6,045 (LV)	± 2%	47%[lower-alpha 5]	52%	-	-	–	–
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports	Oct 31 – Nov 1	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%[lower-alpha 6]	50%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 7]	–
Research Co.	Oct 31 – Nov 1	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	46%	52%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 8]	4%
AYTM/Aspiration	Oct 30 – Nov 1	340 (LV)	–	49%	51%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 29 – Nov 1	699 (LV)	± 3.71%	46%	50%	2%	-	–	2%
Marist College/NBC	Oct 29 – Nov 1	772 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	51%	-	-	1%	2%
Monmouth University	Oct 28 – Nov 1	502(RV)	± 4.4%	45%	50%	1%	-	0%[lower-alpha 9]	4%
		502 (LV)		44%[lower-alpha 10]	51%	-	-	–	–
				45%[lower-alpha 11]	50%	-	-	–	–
Swayable	Oct 27 – Nov 1	1,107 (LV)	± 3.9%	48%	50%	2%	-	–	–
Data for Progress	Oct 27 – Nov 1	1,417 (LV)	± 2.6%	45%	52%	2%	0%	0%[lower-alpha 12]	–
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 27 – Nov 1	673 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%[lower-alpha 13]	51%	1%	1%	2%[lower-alpha 14]	–
				44%[lower-alpha 15]	51%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 16]	2%
				46%[lower-alpha 17]	52%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 18]	–
Trafalgar	Oct 30–31	1,062 (LV)	± 2.93%	48%	46%	2%	-	1%[lower-alpha 19]	4%
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[upper-alpha 1]	Oct 30–31	879 (LV)	± 3%	48%	52%	-	-	–	–
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2]	Oct 30–31	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48.7%	47.4%	1.3%	-	–	2.6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 26–31	1,862 (LV)	± 2.4%	43%	49%	2%	-	0%[lower-alpha 20]	5%[lower-alpha 21]
Morning Consult	Oct 22–31	2,686 (LV)	± 2%	43%	52%	-	-	–	–
Emerson College	Oct 29–30	823 (LV)	± 3.3%	47%[lower-alpha 22]	52%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 23]	–
AtlasIntel	Oct 29–30	672 (LV)	± 4%	50%	49%	-	-	2%	–
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart	Oct 25–30	998 (LV)	–	42%	56%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 24]	–
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[upper-alpha 3]	Oct 28–29	1,012 (V)	–	45%	52%	-	-	–	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 26–29	2,125 (LV)	–	45%	50%	1%	-	1%	3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill	Oct 26–29	901 (LV)	–	46%	51%	-	-	–	3%
ABC/Washington Post	Oct 24–29	824 (LV)	± 4%	44%	51%	3%	-	0%[lower-alpha 25]	1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	Oct 23–28	419 (LV)	± 5.5%	44%	49%	-	-	4%[lower-alpha 26]	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28	10,599 (LV)	± 1.5%	46%	52%	-	-	–	-
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 25–27	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%[lower-alpha 13]	51%	-	-	2%	2%
				44%[lower-alpha 27]	52%	-	-	2%	2%
				47%[lower-alpha 28]	49%	-	-	2%	2%
Quinnipiac University	Oct 23–27	1,324 (LV)	± 2.7%	44%	51%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 29]	4%
Swayable	Oct 23–26	491 (LV)	± 6%	46%	52%	2%	-	–	–
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Oct 23–26	1,145 (LV)	± 3%	45%	52%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 30]	1%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 20–26	655 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%[lower-alpha 13]	51%	3%	0%	1%[lower-alpha 31]	–
				45%[lower-alpha 32]	50%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 33]	2%
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2]	Oct 25	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48.5%	45.5%	3.3%	-	–	2.8%
Trafalgar Group	Oct 24–25	1,076 (LV)	± 2.91%	48%	48%	2%	-	1%[lower-alpha 34]	1%
Wick Surveys	Oct 24–25	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	47%	-	-	–	–
Franklin & Marshall College	Oct 19–25	558 (LV)	± 5%	44%	50%	2%	-	1%[lower-alpha 35]	3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research	Oct 17–25	723 (RV)	± 3.64%	45%	50%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 36]	2%
Gravis Marketing	Oct 23	602 (LV)	± 4%	44%	51%	-	-	–	5%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[upper-alpha 4]	Oct 21–22	980 (V)	–	46%	51%	-	-	–	4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins	Oct 17–21	1,577 (A)	3%	46%	52%	-	-	–	2%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison	Oct 13–21	669 (LV)	± 4.45%	44%	52%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 37]	–
Citizen Data	Oct 17–20	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	39%	44%	9%	0%	1%	7%
CNN/SSRS	Oct 15–20	843 (LV)	± 4%	43%	53%	2%	-	1%[lower-alpha 38]	1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	Oct 13–20	416 (LV)	± 5.5%	44%	51%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 39]	4%
Morning Consult	Oct 11–20	2,563 (LV)	± 1.9%	43%	52%	-	-	–	–
Fox News	Oct 18–19	1,045 (LV)	± 3%	45%	50%	1%	-	1%[lower-alpha 40]	2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports	Oct 18–19	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	50%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 41]	3%
Quinnipiac University	Oct 16–19	1,241 (LV)	± 2.8%	43%	51%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 42]	5%
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 16–19	574 (LV)[lower-alpha 43]	–	47%	49%	-	-	–	–
Suffolk University/USA Today	Oct 15–19	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	49%	1%	-	4%[lower-alpha 44]	4%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 13–19	653 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%[lower-alpha 13]	49%	2%	0%	3%[lower-alpha 45]	–
				45%[lower-alpha 46]	49%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 47]	4%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	Oct 13–15	1,041 (LV)	± 2.96%	46%	48%	3%	-	2%[lower-alpha 48]	2%
HarrisX/The Hill	Oct 12–15	1,289 (LV)	–	46%	51%	-	-	–	–
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 2]	Oct 12–13	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	43%	46%	2%	-	–	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 10–13	1,289 (LV)	–	43%[lower-alpha 43]	51%	1%	0%	–	–
Trafalgar Group	Oct 10–12	1,034 (LV)	± 2.97%	45%	47%	3%	-	3%[lower-alpha 49]	2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 7–12	800 (LV)	–	43%[lower-alpha 13]	49%	1%	–	1%	6%
				42%[lower-alpha 50]	50%	1%	–	1%	6%
				45%[lower-alpha 51]	47%	1%	–	1%	6%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 6]	Oct 8–11	600 (LV)	± 4.2%	45%	52%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 52]	1%
Ipsos/Reuters	Oct 6–11	622 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%[lower-alpha 13]	51%	1%	0%	2%[lower-alpha 53]	–
				44%[lower-alpha 54]	51%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 55]	4%
Morning Consult	Oct 2–11	2,610 (LV)	± 1.9%	44%	52%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 9–10	1,145 (LV)	–	44%[lower-alpha 43]	49%	1%	-	–	–
Whitman Insight Strategies	Oct 5–9	517 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%	51%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 56]	3%
Baldwin Wallace University	Sep 30 – Oct 8	1,140 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	50%	1%	0%	0%[lower-alpha 57]	4%
YouGov/CCES	Sep 29 – Oct 7	2,703 (LV)	–	44%	52%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Oct 4–6	927 (LV)	± 3.22%	42%	49%	1%	-	1%[lower-alpha 58]	7%
Emerson College	Oct 4–5	688 (LV)	± 3.7%	47%[lower-alpha 59]	51%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 60]	–
Quinnipiac University	Oct 1–5	1,211 (LV)	± 2.8%	41%	54%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 61]	3%
Ipsos/Reuters	Sep 29 – Oct 5	605 (LV)	± 4.5%	45%	50%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 62]	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Oct 2–4	468 (LV)	–	46%	50%	-	-	–	–
Monmouth University	Sep 30 – Oct 4	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	54%	1%	-	0%[lower-alpha 63]	2%
		500 (LV)		43%[lower-alpha 64]	54%	-	-	–	–
				45%[lower-alpha 65]	53%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/CBS	Sep 30 – Oct 2	1,287 (LV)	± 3.2%	44%	51%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 66]	5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 30 – Oct 2	706 (LV)	± 4.1%	42%	49%	3%	-	0%[lower-alpha 67]	5%[lower-alpha 68]
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30	4,613 (LV)	–	46%	52%	-	-	–	2%
ABC News/Washington Post	Sep 21–26	567 (LV)	± 5.0%	45%	54%	-	-	0%[lower-alpha 69]	1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 25–27	711 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	49%	2%	-	0%[lower-alpha 70]	8%[lower-alpha 71]
TIPP/The Federalist	Sep 24–26	774 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	50%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 72]	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Sep 23–25	1,015 (LV)	± 3.08%	44%	50%	0%	–	1%[lower-alpha 73]	5%
Fox News	Sep 20–23	856 (LV)	± 3%	44%	51%	2%	–	1%[lower-alpha 74]	2%
		910 (RV)	± 3%	43%	51%	2%	–	2%[lower-alpha 75]	3%
Baldwin Wallace University	Sep 9–22	1,012 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	47%	2%	0%	1%[lower-alpha 76]	5%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	Sep 18–21	1,006 (LV)	± 2.99%	46%	48%	1%	1%	2%[lower-alpha 77]	2%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research Center/Wisconsin State Journal	Sep 10–21	642 (LV)	–	45%	49%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Sep 18–20	579 (LV)	–	45%	49%	-	-	–	–
Franklin & Marshall College	Sep 14–20	480 (LV)	± 7.8%	42%	48%	-	-	–	–
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[upper-alpha 7]	Sep 17–19	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	42%	53%	-	-	–	–
CPEC[upper-alpha 8]	Sep 15–17	830 (LV)	± 2.3%	45%	50%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 78]	4%
Trafalgar Group (R)	Sep 15–17	1,006 (LV)	± 2.99%	45%	47%	2%	1%	2%[lower-alpha 79]	2%
Ipsos/Reuters	Sep 11–16	611 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	49%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 80]	4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 6]	Sep 11–15	704 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	52%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 81]	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Sep 12–14	1,036 (LV)	± 3.04%	44%	49%	1%	1%	0%[lower-alpha 82]	5%
Climate Nexus	Sep 8–11	659 (RV)	± 4%	43%	48%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 83]	6%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP	Aug 28 – Sep 8	1,600 (LV)	± 2.5%	46%	49%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 84]	4%
Marist College/NBC News	Aug 31 – Sep 7	771 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	53%	-	-	1%	2%
Morning Consult	Aug 29 – Sep 7	2,227 (LV)	± (2%-4%)	45%[lower-alpha 85]	50%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Sep 4–6	829 (LV)	–	46%	50%	-	-	4%[lower-alpha 86]	–
TargetSmart	Sep 3–6	835 (LV)	± 3.4%	44%	51%	-	-	3%	3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	Aug 26 – Sep 4	498 (LV)	± 4.3%	42%	44%	-	-	6%[lower-alpha 87]	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Aug 30 – Sep 3	1,053 (LV)	± 3.02%	43%	48%	1%	1%	1%[lower-alpha 88]	7%
Quinnipiac	Aug 28 – Sep 1	1,235 (LV)	± 3%	44%	52%	-	-	1%[lower-alpha 89]	3%
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute[upper-alpha 9]	Aug 26 – Sep 1	500 (LV)	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
Monmouth University	Aug 28–31	400 (RV)	± 4.9%	45%	49%	2%	0%	1%[lower-alpha 90]	4%
		400 (LV)		46%[lower-alpha 91]	49%	-	-	2%	3%
				47%[lower-alpha 92]	48%	-	-	2%	3%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	Aug 26–31	600 (LV)	–	45%	51%	-	-	–	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31	3,531 (LV)	–	45%	53%	-	-	–	2%
Morning Consult	Aug 21–30	2,158 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	45%	49%	-	-	–	–
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports	Aug 25–27	1,000 (LV)	± 3%	48%[lower-alpha 93]	48%	-	-	4%[lower-alpha 94]	–
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[upper-alpha 10]	Aug 20–24	971 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	52%	-	-	–	5%
Franklin & Marshall College	Aug 17–24	681 (RV)	± 5.2%	42%[lower-alpha 95]	50%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 96]	7%
Change Research/CNBC	Aug 21–23	984 (LV)	–	46%	49%	-	-	–	–
Global Strategy Group/Climate Power 2020 /League of Conservation Voters/Sierra Club[upper-alpha 11]	Aug 13–19	801 (RV)	± 3.5%	42%[lower-alpha 13]	50%	2%	1%	–	5%
				43%[lower-alpha 97]	53%	-	-	–	4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies	Aug 16–17	1,006 (LV)	± 3.1%	41%	48%	1%	1%	1%[lower-alpha 98]	8%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 6]	Aug 13–17	617 (RV)	–	44%	51%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 99]	1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	Aug 11–17	416 (LV)	± 5.5%	45%	49%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 100]	3%
Morning Consult	Aug 7–16	1,777 (LV)	± (2%–4%)	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
Emerson College	Aug 8–10	843 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%[lower-alpha 101]	53%	-	-	–	–
Change Research/CNBC	Aug 7–9	456 (RV)	–	44%	48%	-	-	–	–
YouGov/CBS	Aug 4–7	1,211 (LV)	± 3.7%	43%	49%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 102]	5%
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[upper-alpha 12]	Aug 2–4	400 (LV)	± 4.7%	46%	50%	-	-	–	4%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison	Jul 27 – Aug 6	742 (RV)	± 4.9%	41%	50%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 103]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31	4,208 (LV)	–	48%	50%	-	-	–	2%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 24–26	382 (LV)	–	46%	48%	-	-	–	–
Franklin & Marshall College	Jul 20–26	667 (RV)	± 5.5%	41%	50%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 104]	6%
Morning Consult	Jul 17–26	2,092 (LV)	± 2.1%	42%	50%	-	-	–	–
Gravis Marketing	Jul 22–24	1,006 (RV)	± 3.1%	45%	48%	-	-	–	8%
Zogby Analytics	Jul 21–23	809 (RV)	± 3.4%	43%	44%	4%	2%	-	8%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	Jul 17–22	600 (LV)	–	45%	51%	-	-	–	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jul 19–21	1,016 (LV)	–	41%	48%	1%	0%	2%[lower-alpha 105]	8%
Fox News	Jul 18–20	793 (RV)	± 3.5%	39%	50%	-	-	5%[lower-alpha 106]	6%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[upper-alpha 2]	Jul 15–16	750 (LV)	± 4%	46%	51%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 107]	1%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 13]	Jul 11–16	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	47%	-	-	–	5%
Monmouth University	Jul 9–13	401 (RV)	± 4.9%	40%	53%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 108]	4%
		401 (LV)		42%[lower-alpha 109]	52%	-	-	3%	3%
				44%[lower-alpha 110]	51%	-	-	2%	3%
Change Research/CNBC	Jul 10–12	743 (LV)	–	42%	50%	-	-	–	–
Trafalgar Group	Jun 29 – Jul 2	1,062 (LV)	± 2.92%	43%	48%	-	-	6%[lower-alpha 111]	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30	2,184 (LV)	–	48%	50%	-	-	–	2%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 26–28	760 (LV)[lower-alpha 43]	–	44%	50%	-	-	–	–
Susquehanna Polling/Fox 43	Jun 15–23	715 (LV)	–	41%	46%	-	-	5%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	Jun 14–16	1,125 (LV)	± 2.92%	39%	49%	1%	1%	1%[lower-alpha 112]	9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Jun 8–16	651 (RV)	± 4.2%	40%	50%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 113]	6%
Change Research/CNBC	Jun 12–14	491 (LV)[lower-alpha 43]	–	46%	49%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 114]	–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	Jun 8–11	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	54%	-	-	–	4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins	Jun 6–11	1,221 (A)	3.6%	46%	49%	-	-	–	5%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins	May 30 – Jun 2	2,045 (A)	2.4%	46%	49%	-	-	–	5%
Change Research/CNBC	May 29–31	579 (LV)[lower-alpha 43]	–	50%	46%	-	-	2%	2%
Morning Consult	May 17–26	2,120 (LV)	–	44%[lower-alpha 43]	48%	-	-	–	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	May 10–14	963 (LV)	± 3.2%	39%	48%	-	-	2%[lower-alpha 115]	11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	May 9–13	600 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	46%	-	-	–	4%
Harper Polling (R)	Apr 21–26	644 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	49%	-	-	–	8%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 14]	Apr 20–21	1,251 (RV)	–	44%	51%	-	-	–	5%
Fox News	Apr 18–21	803 (RV)	± 3.5%	42%	50%	-	-	–	–
Ipsos	Apr 15–20	578 (RV)	± 5.0%	40%	46%	-	-	–	–
Suquehanna Research/Fox 43	Apr 14–20	693 (LV)	–	42%	48%	-	-	–	–
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	Apr 16–18	600 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	-	-	–	6%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins	Apr 4–8	1,912 (A)	2.5%	47%	47%	-	-	–	6%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes	Mar 17–25	973 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	45%	-	-	–	9%
Change Research	Mar 21–23	510 (LV)	–	50%	47%	-	-	–	4%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5]	Mar 19–21	600 (RV)	–	47%	45%	-	-	–	–
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins	Mar 14–18	1,589 (A)	2.7%	48%	46%	-	-	–	6%
YouGov/Yahoo News	Mar 6–8	725 (RV)	–	40%	46%	-	-	5%[lower-alpha 116]	8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Mar 5–7	533 (RV)	± 5.3%	45%	44%	-	-	–	–
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins	Feb 27 – Mar 3	2,462 (A)	2.2%	48%	46%	-	-	–	7%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	Feb 12–20	424 (RV)	± 5.5%	47%	47%	-	-	2%	4%
YouGov	Feb 11–20	1,171 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	46%	-	-	–	–
Quinnipiac University	Feb 12–18	849 (RV)	± 3.4%	42%	50%	-	-	6%[lower-alpha 117]	3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute	Feb 6–18	500 (RV)	–	42%	47%	-	-	–	11%

2017–2019 polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other	Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Dec 3–5, 2019	598 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	41%	8%[lower-alpha 118]	6%[lower-alpha 119]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	Nov 4–9, 2019	410 (RV)	± 6.0%	43%	52%	4%	2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 13–25, 2019	661 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	46%	–	–
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Sep 7–9, 2019	527 (LV)	± 4.2%	41%	45%	14%	–
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Jun 11–13, 2019	565 (LV)	± 4.2%	42%	43%	15%	–
Quinnipiac University	May 9–14, 2019	978 (RV)	± 4.2%	42%	53%	1%	3%
WPA Intelligence	Apr 27–30, 2019	200 (LV)	± 6.9%	45%	46%	–	8%
Emerson College	Mar 26–28, 2019	808 (RV)	± 3.4%	45%	55%	–	–
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus	Mar 19–21, 2019	632 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	50%	4%	–

Former candidates and hypothetical polling

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 48% 45% 2% 5% Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 120] 3% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 39% 48% – 13% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 41% 9%[lower-alpha 121] 5% Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 45% 3% 5% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 40% 46% – 14% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 44% 44% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 47% 8%[lower-alpha 122] 2% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 40% 7%[lower-alpha 123] 7%[lower-alpha 124] Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 32% 23% – Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 45% 4% 6% Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 45% 45% 3% 5% Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% – – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 45% 44% 3% 8% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 43% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 125] 4% Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Other Undecided Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 44% 4% 5% Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 40% 8% – Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 973 (RV) ± 3.9% 48% 42% – 10% Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 5] Mar 19–21, 2020 600 (RV) – 49% 43% – – YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 725 (RV) – 41% 43% 6%[lower-alpha 126] 10% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 533 (RV) ± 5.3 % 46% 42% – – Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 49% 3% 3% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 47% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 127] 1% Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 43% 45% – 12% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8%[lower-alpha 128] 6%[lower-alpha 129] Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 44% 14% – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 41% 15% – Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 43% 50% 2% 3% Tulchin Research (D)[upper-alpha 15] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 51% – – Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 55% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 44% 8% – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 47% 47% 4% 3% YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 45% – – Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 47% 8%[lower-alpha 130] 2% Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Dec 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 8%[lower-alpha 131] 5%[lower-alpha 132] Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 44% – – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 43% 16% – Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 34% 21% – Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 (RV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 3% 4% Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 52% – – Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 813 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 46% – 16%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat (D) Undecided Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 48.6%[lower-alpha 133] 49.2% 2.1%[lower-alpha 134] Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 38% 51% 11% Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,037 (RV) ± 3.2% 39.7%[lower-alpha 135] 49.5% 10.7% KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 752 (RV) ± 4% 29% 40% 22% Donald Trump vs. Generic Opponent Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Opponent Undecided Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 23–28, 2020 419 (LV) ± 5.5% 42% 54% 4% Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 13–20, 2020 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 51% 5% Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Aug 11–17, 2020 416 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 53% 3% Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5% 42% 54% 4% Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 42% 57% 2% F&M/PoliticsPA Mar 18–24, 2019 540 (RV) ± 5.5% 36% 61%[lower-alpha 136] 4%

Results

9,098,998[32] residents registered to vote by the voter registration deadline on October 15, which had been extended from its original date on October 13 by court order.

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania[33][34][lower-alpha 137]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	3,458,229	50.01%	+2.55%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	3,377,674	48.84%	+0.66%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	79,380	1.15%	-1.23%
Total votes			6,915,283	100.00%

Results by county

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Margin		Total votes
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	18,207	32.20%	37,523	66.37%	810	1.43%	-19,316	-34.16%	56,540
Allegheny	429,065	59.61%	282,324	39.23%	8,344	1.16%	147,846	20.48%	722,033
Armstrong	8,457	23.25%	27,489	75.58%	424	1.17%	-19,032	-52.33%	36,370
Beaver	38,122	40.50%	54,759	58.18%	1,241	1.32%	-16,637	-17.68%	94,122
Bedford	4,367	15.84%	23,025	83.50%	182	0.66%	-18,658	-67.67%	27,574
Berks	92,895	45.20%	109,736	53.39%	2,909	1.42%	-16,841	-8.19%	205,540
Blair	17,636	27.73%	45,306	71.24%	653	1.03%	-27,670	-43.51%	63,595
Bradford	8,046	26.68%	21,600	71.62%	513	1.70%	-13,554	-44.94%	30,159
Bucks	204,712	51.66%	187,367	47.29%	4,155	1.05%	17,345	4.38%	396,234
Butler	37,508	33.10%	74,359	65.63%	1,438	1.27%	-36,851	-32.52%	113,305
Cambria	21,730	30.79%	48,085	68.13%	759	1.08%	-26,355	-37.34%	70,574
Cameron	634	26.05%	1,771	72.76%	29	1.19%	-1,137	-46.71%	2,434
Carbon	11,212	33.34%	21,984	65.37%	433	1.29%	-10,772	-32.03%	33,629
Centre	40,055	51.69%	36,372	46.94%	1,066	1.38%	3,683	4.75%	77,493
Chester	182,372	57.99%	128,565	40.88%	3,565	1.13%	53,807	17.11%	314,502
Clarion	4,678	24.00%	14,578	74.79%	237	1.22%	-9,900	-50.79%	19,493
Clearfield	9,673	24.54%	29,203	74.08%	546	1.39%	-19,530	-49.54%	39,422
Clinton	5,502	31.22%	11,902	67.53%	221	1.25%	-6,400	-36.31%	17,625
Columbia	10,532	33.79%	20,098	64.48%	541	1.74%	-9,566	-30.69%	31,171
Crawford	12,924	30.77%	28,559	67.99%	521	1.24%	-15,635	-37.22%	42,004
Cumberland	62,245	43.96%	77,212	54.53%	2,138	1.51%	-14,967	-10.57%	141,595
Dauphin	78,983	53.60%	66,408	45.06%	1,977	1.34%	12,575	8.53%	147,368
Delaware	206,423	62.95%	118,532	36.15%	2,976	0.91%	87,891	26.80%	327,931
Elk	4,522	26.75%	12,140	71.81%	244	1.44%	-7,618	-45.06%	16,906
Erie	68,286	49.81%	66,869	48.78%	1,928	1.41%	1,417	1.03%	137,083
Fayette	20,444	32.90%	41,227	66.35%	468	0.75%	-20,783	-33.45%	62,139
Forest	728	27.51%	1,882	71.13%	36	1.36%	-1,154	-43.61%	2,646
Franklin	22,422	27.76%	57,245	70.86%	1,116	1.38%	-34,823	-43.11%	80,783
Fulton	1,085	13.60%	6,824	85.55%	68	0.85%	-5,739	-71.94%	7,977
Greene	4,911	27.79%	12,579	71.19%	179	1.01%	-7,668	-43.40%	17,669
Huntingdon	5,445	23.89%	17,061	74.86%	286	1.25%	-11,616	-50.97%	22,792
Indiana	12,634	30.67%	28,089	68.18%	475	1.15%	-15,455	-37.51%	41,198
Jefferson	4,527	19.83%	17,960	78.69%	337	1.48%	-13,433	-58.85%	22,824
Juniata	2,253	18.71%	9,649	80.12%	141	1.17%	-7,396	-61.41%	12,043
Lackawanna	61,991	53.71%	52,334	45.35%	1,085	0.94%	9,657	8.37%	115,410
Lancaster	115,847	41.34%	160,209	57.17%	4,183	1.49%	-44,362	-15.83%	280,239
Lawrence	15,978	34.68%	29,597	64.24%	501	1.09%	-13,619	-29.56%	46,076
Lebanon	23,932	33.40%	46,731	65.22%	989	1.38%	-22,799	-31.82%	71,652
Lehigh	98,288	53.21%	84,259	45.62%	2,166	1.17%	14,029	7.60%	184,713
Luzerne	64,873	42.31%	86,929	56.70%	1,519	0.99%	-22,056	-14.39%	153,321
Lycoming	16,971	28.64%	41,462	69.97%	821	1.39%	-24,491	-41.33%	59,254
McKean	5,098	26.19%	14,083	72.35%	285	1.46%	-8,985	-46.16%	19,466
Mercer	21,067	36.35%	36,143	62.36%	744	1.28%	-15,076	-26.01%	57,954
Mifflin	4,603	21.41%	16,670	77.53%	229	1.07%	-12,067	-56.12%	21,502
Monroe	44,060	52.56%	38,726	46.20%	1,043	1.24%	5,334	6.36%	83,829
Montgomery	319,511	62.63%	185,460	36.35%	5,186	1.02%	134,051	26.28%	510,157
Montour	3,771	38.59%	5,844	59.81%	156	1.60%	-2,073	-21.22%	9,771
Northampton	85,087	49.78%	83,854	49.05%	2,001	1.17%	1,233	0.72%	170,942
Northumberland	12,677	29.98%	28,952	68.47%	654	1.55%	-16,275	-38.49%	42,283
Perry	5,950	24.14%	18,293	74.20%	409	1.66%	-12,343	-50.07%	24,652
Philadelphia	603,790	81.44%	132,740	17.90%	4,847	0.65%	471,050	63.54%	741,377
Pike	13,019	39.99%	19,213	59.02%	322	0.99%	-6,194	-19.03%	32,554
Potter	1,726	19.04%	7,239	79.87%	99	1.09%	-5,513	-60.82%	9,064
Schuylkill	20,727	29.36%	48,871	69.22%	1,005	1.42%	-28,144	-39.86%	70,603
Snyder	4,910	25.65%	13,983	73.06%	247	1.29%	-9,073	-47.40%	19,140
Somerset	8,654	21.35%	31,466	77.61%	423	1.04%	-22,812	-56.27%	40,543
Sullivan	921	25.62%	2,619	72.85%	55	1.53%	-1,698	-47.23%	3,595
Susquehanna	6,236	28.67%	15,207	69.91%	309	1.42%	-8,971	-41.24%	21,752
Tioga	4,955	23.51%	15,742	74.70%	378	1.79%	-10,787	-51.18%	21,075
Union	7,475	37.16%	12,356	61.43%	284	1.41%	-4,881	-24.27%	20,115
Venango	7,585	28.59%	18,569	70.00%	374	1.41%	-10,984	-41.41%	26,528
Warren	6,066	29.38%	14,237	68.94%	347	1.68%	-8,171	-39.57%	20,650
Washington	45,088	38.06%	72,080	60.84%	1,310	1.11%	-26,992	-22.78%	118,478
Wayne	9,191	32.72%	18,637	66.35%	261	0.93%	-9,446	-33.63%	28,089
Westmoreland	72,129	35.24%	130,218	63.62%	2,350	1.15%	-58,089	-28.38%	204,697
Wyoming	4,704	31.66%	9,936	66.87%	218	1.47%	-5,232	-35.21%	14,858
York	88,114	36.95%	146,733	61.53%	3,624	1.52%	-58,619	-24.58%	238,471
Totals	3,458,229	50.01%	3,377,674	48.84%	79,380	1.15%	81,660	1.18%	6,917,583

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Erie (largest municipality: Erie)
• Northampton (largest municipality: Bethlehem)

People waiting in line to vote in Hatboro

Analysis

Throughout the year, Pennsylvania was regarded as the most important (or likely tipping-point) state in the entire election; Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes, and it was one of the closest states of the 2016 presidential election. Both candidates aggressively played for the state; Trump needed the state as it represented his narrow path to re-election, while Biden needed the state to rebuild the blue wall, which Trump broke by carrying the northern industrial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[35]

Historically, Pennsylvania has usually been a competitive state. During the Second Party System, it voted for the winner of every election. From the Civil War on, it has generally had a partisan lean; during the Third and Fourth Party Systems, Pennsylvania was a classic Yankee Republican state. When Franklin Roosevelt carried it in 1936, he became the first Democrat in eighty years to do so. Between 1936 and 1988, neither major party carried Pennsylvania for more than three straight presidential elections, although between 1952 and 1988, it voted Democratic in every close election (1960, 1968, 1976), and consistently voted more Democratic than the nation. Starting in 1992, Pennsylvania became part of the blue wall--the group of states that voted Democratic for six straight elections from 1992 through 2012. In 2016, it was one of three blue wall states that Trump won on his way to an upset victory.

Biden's winning margin in Pennsylvania was somewhat smaller than that of other Democrats who had carried the state in recent close elections. His margin of 1.2% was less than a third that of Al Gore's 4.2% margin in 2000, and less than a fourth that of Barack Obama's 5.4% margin in 2012. It was closer to John Kerry's margin of 2.5% in 2004, although, because Kerry was losing the overall national popular vote by 2.5%, his win made Pennsylvania 5% bluer than the country in 2004. In contrast, Pennsylvania remained redder than the country in 2020 even as Biden won it, by about 3.3%. As in Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden ran behind Barack Obama's performances in 2008 and 2012, though he received more votes total in the state this cycle due to record-breaking turnout.

As for Trump, he easily set the record for total number of votes for a Republican candidate in Pennsylvania history (as with Biden, largely due to record-breaking turnout). With 48.84% of the vote, he did slightly outpace both his own vote share in 2016 (48.18%) and George W. Bush's in 2004 (48.42%), the latter of which had previously stood as the highest Republican vote share in the state since 1988.

Joe Biden's strongest base of support was the Philadelphia metro area. In the city of Philadelphia itself, Biden won by 63.4%, a weaker win than Hillary Clinton's 66.9% margin in the city in 2016, but still better than Kerry's 61.1% margin in 2004 or Gore's 62.0% margin in 2000.[36] Donald Trump improved his vote share in Philadelphia by 2.5%,[37] and, as of the counting on November 8, held a majority of the vote in the 26th, 58th, and 66th wards. However, Biden improved on Hillary Clinton dramatically in the Main Line counties of Montgomery and Chester, as well as, to a lesser extent, Delaware, increasing the Democratic vote share in these counties by 4.2%, 5.9%, and 3.5%, respectively, and winning them all by double digits. Before 1992, all three had been Republican strongholds in the state, and Chester had been considered a swing county as recently as 2012, when Romney narrowly carried it, but all three have drifted towards the Democratic column, as they tend to be socially liberal.[38]

Biden also performed strongly in Pennsylvania's other urban, suburban, and exurban areas. Crucially, he carried Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) by 20.4%, the widest margin any nominee had won the county by since 1992.[39] Centre and Dauphin both remained in the Democratic column; in the past, these counties voted Republican, though Centre County is home to Pennsylvania State University, while Dauphin County has followed the trend of urban areas becoming more Democratic. Biden also narrowly reclaimed two counties anchored by industrial cities which had long voted Democratic before Trump flipped them in 2016, Northampton (Bethlehem) and Erie (Erie), and improved on Hillary Clinton's margin in his birth county of Lackawanna County (Scranton), a county Hillary Clinton had barely kept in the Democratic column in 2016. In suburban Cumberland County, adjacent to Harrisburg, Biden shaved Trump's margin from 17.8% to 10.5%.[40] Northampton and Erie were the only counties to flip from one party to the other; Northampton has voted for the winner of the state in every election from 1952 on.

Trump maintained much of his momentum throughout rural and industrial Pennsylvania from four years earlier, with convincing victories in counties that were once competitive or even Democratic-leaning. He kept Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre), which had voted Democratic six elections in a row before 2016 (and which had voted with the winner of the state from 1936 through 2016), in his column, although his margin in it was cut from 19.3% to 14.3%. Trump also won the former Democratic stronghold of Westmoreland County convincingly, although his margin in this county, crucial to his win in 2016,[41] declined.[42] Other previously competitive counties that Trump performed well in included Berks and Cambria, both of which voted for Obama in 2008. Trump further ran up the score in other conservative exurban[43] counties, most notably in Lancaster and Lebanon counties, though his margin shrank somewhat in both.

Trump won whites in the state by 15 points, although like in the rest of the country, there was a clear disparity between college-educated and non college-educated whites. Biden won whites with a college degree by 9 points, while Trump excelled with whites without a college degree, winning this group by 32 points. Additionally, there was a gender disparity with the white vote; Trump won white men by 15 points, but only carried white women by 3 points. Finally, there was an age gap; Biden won young voters by double-digit margins, whereas Trump performed strongly with middle-aged voters; senior citizens were more even, breaking slightly for Trump.[44]

Within minority blocs, Biden fared well, as he won black voters by 87 points, and won Latinos by 42 points. Three other critical voting blocs broke for Biden this cycle; he won independent voters by 8 points, moderates by 17 points, and first-time voters by 23 points.[44]

Aftermath

On November 24, 2020, the Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Kathy Boockvar, certified the results, and Governor Tom Wolf, in accordance with the law, signed the certificate of ascertainment for the Biden/Harris slate of electors for Biden and Harris and sent it to the Archivist of the United States.[45][46]

On November 25, 2020, the Pennsylvania Senate Majority (Republican) Policy committee held a public hearing regarding the counting of ballots in this election.[47] Trump planned to attend the meeting but he canceled the trip.[48]

After a group of Republican congressman filed a lawsuit to stop certification on November 22, Judge Patricia McCullough ruled to halt further state certifications pending a hearing. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled on November 28 to unanimously overturn Judge Patricia McCullough's ruling to halt certification.[49] Moreover, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court also dismissed with prejudice the requests of Representative Mike Kelly and other Republicans to either invalidate all 2.5 million mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, or to invalidate all 6.9 million ballots in the state and have the state's Republican-controlled Legislature choose the presidential electors for the state.[50][51] The rationale for the decision was that the Republicans were challenging the law too late; they had been able to challenge the law since it became live on October 2019, but they only filed the lawsuit when the results of the November 2020 election were "becoming seemingly apparent". Hence, the Republicans had failed to act with "due diligence" in their handling of the case.[51][52] By the time of the court's decision, the Pennsylvania election results had been certified in Biden's favor.[53] The congressmen appealed to the US Supreme Court, but on December 8, 2020, the Supreme Court unanimously rejected the request in one sentence.[54][55]

Objection

On January 6, 2021, as Congress certified the Electoral College results confirming President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris' wins, there was an objection to Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, brought forward by Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district and officially signed onto by Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri.[56] The objection failed 7-92 in the Senate, and 138-282 in the House.[57]

See also

• List of United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
• 2020 Pennsylvania elections
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections
• Post-election lawsuits related to the 2020 United States presidential election

Notes

Partisan clients

1. Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
2. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
3. Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
4. The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
5. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
6. Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
7. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
8. CPEC campaigns exclusively for Democratic candidates
9. The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
10. Unite the Country PAC endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
11. The League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
12. Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
13. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
14. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
15. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign

Additional candidates

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
4. Would not vote with 0%
5. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
6. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
7. "Some other candidate" with 1%
8. "Someone else" with 2%
9. "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%
10. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
11. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
12. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
13. Standard VI response
14. West (B) with 2%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
15. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
16. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
17. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
18. "Some other candidate" with 2%
19. "Someone else" with 1%
20. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
21. Includes "Refused"
22. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
23. "Someone else" with 2%
24. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
25. "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
26. "Neither/other" with 4%
27. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
28. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
29. "Someone else" with 1%
30. "Someone else" with 2%
31. "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
32. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
33. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
34. "Someone else" with 1%
35. "Refused" with 1%; "Some other candidate" with 0%
36. "Someone else" with 3%
37. Includes Undecided
38. "Other" with 1%; "None of these" with 0%
39. "Neither/other" with 2%
40. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
41. "Some other candidate" with 2%
42. "Someone else" with 1%
43. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
44. "Refused" with 3%; "Others" with 1%
45. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
46. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
47. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
48. "Someone else" with 2%
49. "Someone else" with 3%
50. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
51. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
52. "Someone else" with 2%
53. "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 1%; West (B) with 0%
54. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
55. "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
56. "Someone else" with 1%
57. "Another candidate" with 0%
58. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
59. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
60. "Someone else" with 2%
61. "Someone else" with 1%
62. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
63. "Other candidate" and "No one" with 0%
64. With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
65. With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
66. "Someone else/third party" with 2%
67. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
68. Includes "Refused"
69. "Neither" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
70. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
71. Includes "Refused"
72. "Other" with 1%; "Prefer not to answer" with 0%
73. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
74. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
75. "Other" and would not vote with 1%
76. "Another candidate" with 1%
77. "Someone else" with 2%
78. "Third party candidate" with 1%
79. "Someone else" with 2%
80. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
81. "Someone else" with 1%
82. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
83. "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 3%
84. Would not vote with 1%
85. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
86. "Other/not sure" with 4%
87. "Other" and "Refused" with 3%
88. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
89. "Someone else" with 1%
90. "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with no voters
91. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
92. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
93. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight; with voters who lean towards a given candidate
94. "Some other candidate" with 4%
95. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
96. "Some other candidate" with 3%
97. If only Biden and Trump were candidates
98. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
99. "Someone else" with 3%
100. "Neither/other" with 3%
101. Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
102. "Someone else/third party" with 3%
103. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
104. "Some other candidate" with 2%
105. West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 1%
106. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
107. "Some other candidate" with 2%
108. "Another candidate" with 3%; "No one" with 0%
109. With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
110. With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
111. "Other party candidate" with 6%
112. "other" with 1%
113. "Another candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
114. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
115. "Third party/write-in" with 2%
116. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
117. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
118. A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 2%
119. Includes "refused"
120. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
121. A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 3%
122. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
123. A third party candidate with 4%; will not vote with 3%
124. Includes "refused"
125. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
126. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
127. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
128. A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
129. Includes "refused"
130. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
131. A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
132. Includes "refused"
133. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
134. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
135. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
136. 61% "time for a change" as opposed to "Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election"
137. Write-in votes have not yet been reported and are not reflected in total votes or percentages.

References

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2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. Prokop, Andrew (November 6, 2020). "Why Decision Desk called Pennsylvania, and the presidential race, for Joe Biden". Vox. Archived from the original on November 6, 2020. Retrieved November 7, 2020.
5. Hall, Richard (November 8, 2020). "I saw Donald Trump's presidency come crashing down at Four Seasons Total Landscaping". The Independent. Retrieved November 14, 2020. “Who was it called by?”, “All of them,” came the response.
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7. Taylor, Jessica (November 9, 2018). "What 2018 Elections Could Tell Us About The 2020 Presidential Map". National Public Radio. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
8. de Vogue, Ariane (October 19, 2020). "Supreme Court allows Pennsylvania to count mail-in ballots received after Election Day". CNN. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
9. Thompson, Steve; Nirappil, Fenit (February 6, 2019). "D.C. is slated to vote last in 2020 Democratic primaries. That might change". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
10. "Pennsylvania just postponed its primary due to coronavirus. Here's what it means for voters and 2020 campaigns". The Philadelphia Inquirer. March 27, 2020.
11. "Do Republicans oppose vote by mail? In Pennsylvania, it's not that simple". The Philadelphia Inquirer. April 13, 2020.
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13. "Pennsylvania Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
14. "2020 Presidential Primary Official Returns". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
15. "2020 Primary Elections: Pennsylvania results". NBC. July 17, 2020. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
16. "Hawkins Wins PA Presidential Caucus". Green Party of Pennsylvania. May 4, 2020. Retrieved September 11, 2020.
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23. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
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37. Brennan, Chris (November 8, 2020). "Philly put Biden over the top, but Trump did better in the city than four years ago". Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
38. Garrison, Joey (November 13, 2020). "Donald Trump keeps baselessly claiming voter fraud in cities. But suburbs actually lost him the election". USA Today. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
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48. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/527531-trump-cancels-plans-to-attend-pennsylvania-gop-event-on-election
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51. Viebeck, Elise (November 29, 2020). "Pennsylvania Supreme Court dismisses lawsuit against mail ballots with prejudice in another defeat for Trump". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on November 29, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
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Further reading

• Shawn Donnan (September 2, 2020), "A Rust Belt Town's Loyalties Divide as Pennsylvania Turns Purple", Bloomberg.com, archived from the original on September 10, 2020. (Focus on the town of Ambridge)
• David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (September 6, 2020), "The seven political states of Pennsylvania", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 7, 2020. (Describes political geography of regions: Allegheny, Central, Dutch Country, Northeast, Philadelphia, Southeast, and West).
• Michael Sokolove (September 10, 2020), "How Trump Could Win Pennsylvania Again", New York Times, archived from the original on September 10, 2020
• David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", Nytimes.com. (Describes bellwether Erie County, Pennsylvania)
• Michael Scherer; et al. (October 10, 2020), "Pennsylvania emerges as 'tipping-point' battleground for Biden and Trump — before and after Election Day", Washingtonpost.com

External links

• "League of Women Voters of Pennsylvania". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)