2020 United States presidential election in Vermont

The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Vermont
November 3, 2020
Turnout73.27%[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 242,820 112,704
Percentage 66.09% 30.67%
County Results
Municipality Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Vermont
Federal offices
Presidential elections
U.S. Senate elections
Class One
Class Three
U.S. House elections
Special elections
State offices
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Legislative elections
Senate
House of Representatives
Municipal offices
Mayoral elections
City of Burlington
City of Rutland

Vermont was won by Biden with 66.1% of the vote. Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations projected Vermont as a strongly Democratic state, or a safe blue state. The Green Mountain State gave Biden a victory margin of 35.4% over Trump. Vermont gave Biden his highest vote percentage and margin of victory of any state, making this the first ever presidential election in which Vermont was the most Democratic state in the nation. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%.[4] Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third party candidates received over 14% of the vote.[5] Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history. Trump carried only one county, the sparsely-populated Essex County bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016.

Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[6]

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Vermont Republican presidential primary[edit]
2020 Vermont Republican primary[7]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[8]
Donald Trump 33,984 86.49 17
Bill Weld 3,971 10.11 0
Rocky De La Fuente 341 0.87 0
Write-ins 480 1.22 0
Overvotes 37 0.09 0
Blank votes 478 1.22 0
Total 39,291 100% 17

Democratic primary
Main article: 2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[9][10] Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[11][12]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—40–50%
  Sanders—50–60%
2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary[13]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[14]
Bernie Sanders 79,921 50.57 11
Joe Biden 34,669 21.94 5
Elizabeth Warren 19,785 12.52 0
Michael Bloomberg 14,828 9.38 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 3,709 2.35 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 1,991 1.26 0
Tulsi Gabbard 1,303 0.82 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) 591 0.37 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 202 0.13 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn†) 137 0.09 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 135 0.09 0
Mark Stewart 110 0.07 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 52 0.03 0
Write-ins[lower-alpha 1] 219 0.14 0
Overvotes 57 0.04 0
Blank votes 323 0.20 0
Total 158,032 100% 16
†Candidate withdrew after no-excuse, in-person absentee voting started.

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[16] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[18] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[19] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[20] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[21] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[22] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[23] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[24] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[25] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[26] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[27] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[28] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 64.4% 29.1% 6.5% Biden +35.3


Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 906 (LV) ± 4.5% 26%[lower-alpha 4] 71% - - – –
co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor[upper-alpha 1] Oct 19–29, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.05% 32% 62% - - – 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,167 (LV) – 29% 69% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 427 (LV) – 34% 64% - - – 2%
Braun Research/VPR Sep 3–15, 2020 582 (LV) ± 4% 32% 56% - - 8%[lower-alpha 5] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 236 (LV) – 29% 70% - - – 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 368 (LV) – 27% 71% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 113 (LV) – 20% 75% - - – 5%

Results
2020 United States presidential election in Vermont[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		242,820 65.46% +9.74%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 112,704 30.38% +0.62%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 3,608 0.97% -2.17%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker		 1,310 0.35% -1.76%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball		 1,269 0.34% N/A
Grumpy Old Patriots H. Brooke Paige
Thomas Witman		 1,175 0.32% N/A
Independent Christopher LaFontaine
Michael Speed		 856 0.23% N/A
Independent Richard Duncan
Mitch Bupp		 213 0.06% N/A
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel		 209 0.06% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr		 208 0.06% +0.04%
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett		 195 0.05% N/A
Liberty Union Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman		 166 0.04% -0.06%
Boiling Frog Gary Swing
David Olszta		 141 0.04% N/A
Prohibition Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker		 137 0.04% N/A
Bull Moose Keith McCormic
Sam Blasiak		 126 0.03% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard		 100 0.03% N/A
Bread and Roses Jerome Segal
John De Graaf		 65 0.02% N/A
Approval Voting Blake Huber
Frank Atwood		 54 0.01% N/A
Independent Kyle Kopitke
Taja Ivanow		 53 0.01% N/A
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson		 48 0.01% N/A
Independent Zachary Scalf
Matthew Lyda		 29 0.00% N/A
Write-in 1,942 0.53%
Total votes 367,428 100.00%

Results by county

[30]

County Joe Biden Votes Donald Trump Votes Third-Parties / Others Votes Jo Jorgensen Votes Howie Hawkins Votes Others Votes Total
Democratic Republican Libertarian Green
Addison67.4%14,96728.3%6,2924.3%9531.1%2430.3%692.9%64122,212
Bennington61.5%12,70534.5%7,1142.7%5490.97%2000.35%721.3%27720,640
Caledonia55.2%9,011 40.1%6,5514.7%7721%1670.4%663.3%53916,334
Chittenden75.1%74,96121%21,0173.9%3,8810.9%8820.4%3722.6%2,62799,859
Essex42.4%1,40553.5%1,7734.2%1391.2%400.2%72.8%923,317
Franklin52.2%13,61143.2%11,2744.6%1,1991.3%3350.2%593%80526,084
Grand Isle59.1%2,90536.8%1,8104.1%1970.7%350.2%123.1%1504,912
Lamoille67.9%10,240 27.6%4,1634.6%6891.1%1680.3%443.2%47715,092
Orange59.5%10,30435.7%6,1874.8%8360.9%1620.3%573.6%61717,327
Orleans50.3%7,14745.8%6,5123.9%5560.9%1330.2%352.7%38814,215
Rutland53.2%18,23042.3%14,6724.1%1,3900.9%3390.2%842.8%96734,292
Washington70.6%25,191 25%8,9284.4%1,5760.9%3340.5%1663%1,07635,695
Windham71.4%18,76724.5%6,4404.7%1,0710.9%2300.5%1392.7%70226,278
Windsor67.3%23,376 28.7%9,9713.9%1,3641%3400.4%1282.6%89634,711


[31]

Notes
  1. Donald Trump with 83 votes; Blank (written in) with 8 votes; Hillary Clinton with 5 votes; Michael Bennet with 3 votes; Ron Paul, Michelle Obama, John Edwards, Thomas James Torgensen, and Stephen Richardson with 2 votes; 110 other write-ins with 1 vote
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. "Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election

See also

References
  1. "Voter turnout" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. "Map: Turnout surged in 2020. See the numbers where you live". NBC News. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  5. Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  6. "Vermont Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  7. ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  8. "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  9. "Bernie Sanders Enters 2020 Presidential Campaign, No Longer An Underdog". NPR. Retrieved February 20, 2019.
  10. Martin, Jonathan; Ember, Sydney (December 27, 2018). "For Bernie Sanders, Holding Onto Support May Be Hard in a 2020 Bid". The New York Times.
  11. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Massachusetts". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  12. Ma, John Haltiwanger, Joe Perticone, Alexandra. "Joe Biden is running for president in 2020, warning that another term of Trump would tarnish America's soul forever". Business Insider. Retrieved May 1, 2019.
  13. "Vermont Election Official Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  14. "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  15. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  19. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  20. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  21. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  22. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  23. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  24. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  25. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  26. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  27. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  28. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  29. "General official results" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  30. https://sos.vermont.gov/media/heqnbco5/generalofficialresults.pdf
  31. https://sos.vermont.gov/media/heqnbco5/generalofficialresults.pdf
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