2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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Elections in New Hampshire |
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New Hampshire is considerably the more fiscally conservative of the New England states and has a strong disdain for taxes, giving the Republicans an edge in the state. However, like the rest of New England, it is considerably more liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights, which helps the Democrats. Despite the state's traditional competitiveness, polls throughout the campaign showed a clear Biden lead after June 2020. Prior to election day, all 14 news organizations considered New Hampshire a state that Biden was favored to win, or otherwise considered as a lean blue state.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden prevailed in the state by garnering 58% of Caucasian women, and 69% of unmarried women.[3] Biden carried voters prioritizing healthcare policy with 73% campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions,[3] a resonant issue in a state plagued by the opioid crisis.
Biden flipped the counties of Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Sullivan, of which Hillsborough (which houses the state's largest city of Manchester) and Sullivan had voted for Barack Obama twice before switching to Trump in 2016, into the Democratic column. Biden also significantly expanded Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead of 2,736 votes (0.37%) to 59,267 votes (7.35%). Corresponding Democratic victories in the Senate election and both House elections reaffirmed the Democrats' strength in what used to be a heavily contested battleground. Biden's best margin was in the socially liberal Connecticut River Valley, which had overwhelmingly favored Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, while Trump's strength came in the rural Great North Woods Region. Biden was the first Democrat to ever win the White House without Coös County.
Donald Trump's comment in 2017 about New Hampshire being a "drug-infested den" hurt his image in the state and may have contributed to Biden's significantly wide margin of victory.[4]
New Hampshire was one of sixteen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1]
Primary elections
The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.[5]
Republican primary
The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6] Typically, the top candidates of the other major party receive a large number of write-in votes.
Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 129,734 | 84.4 | 22 |
Bill Weld | 13,844 | 9.0 | 0 |
Pete Buttigieg (write-in Democratic) | 1,116 | 0.7 | 0 |
Amy Klobuchar (write-in Democratic) | 1,076 | 0.7 | 0 |
Mary Maxwell | 929 | 0.6 | 0 |
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 838 | 0.5 | 0 |
Mike Bloomberg (write-in Democratic) | 801 | 0.5 | 0 |
Bernie Sanders (write-in Democratic) | 753 | 0.5 | 0 |
Mitt Romney (write-in) | 632 | 0.4 | 0 |
Scattered write-ins | 537 | 0.3 | 0 |
Eric Merrill | 524 | 0.3 | 0 |
William N. Murphy | 447 | 0.3 | 0 |
Tulsi Gabbard (write-in Democratic) | 369 | 0.2 | 0 |
Joe Biden (write-in Democratic) | 330 | 0.2 | 0 |
Matthew John Matern | 268 | 0.2 | 0 |
Stephen B. Comley | 202 | 0.1 | 0 |
Tom Steyer (write-in Democratic) | 191 | 0.1 | 0 |
Andrew Yang (write-in Democratic) | 162 | 0.1 | 0 |
Elizabeth Warren (write-in Democratic) | 157 | 0.1 | 0 |
Rocky De La Fuente | 148 | 0.1 | 0 |
Rick Kraft | 117 | 0.1 | 0 |
Juan Payne | 83 | 0.1 | 0 |
President R. Boddie | 72 | 0.1 | 0 |
Robert Ardini | 77 | 0.1 | 0 |
Bob Ely | 68 | 0.0 | 0 |
Larry Horn | 65 | 0.0 | 0 |
Star Locke | 66 | 0.0 | 0 |
Zoltan Istvan | 56 | 0.0 | 0 |
Total | 153,654 | 100% | 22 |
Democratic primary
Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.[9]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[lower-alpha 2] |
---|---|---|---|
Bernie Sanders | 76,384 | 25.6 | 9 |
Pete Buttigieg | 72,454 | 24.3 | 9 |
Amy Klobuchar | 58,714 | 19.7 | 6 |
Elizabeth Warren | 27,429 | 9.2 | 0 |
Joe Biden | 24,944 | 8.3 | 0 |
Tom Steyer | 10,732 | 3.6 | 0 |
Tulsi Gabbard | 9,755 | 3.3 | 0 |
Andrew Yang | 8,312 | 2.8 | 0 |
Michael Bloomberg (write-in)[14][11] | 4,675 | 1.6 | 0 |
Deval Patrick | 1,271 | 0.4 | 0 |
Donald Trump (write-in Republican)[11] | 1,217 | 0.4 | 0 |
Michael Bennet | 952 | 0.3 | 0 |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.1 | 0 |
Scatter | 157 | 0.1 | 0 |
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 152 | 0.1 | 0 |
Kamala Harris (withdrawn) | 129 | 0.0 | 0 |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 99 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steve Burke | 86 | 0.0 | 0 |
Julián Castro (withdrawn) | 83 | 0.0 | 0 |
John Delaney (withdrawn) | 83 | 0.0 | 0 |
Tom Koos | 72 | 0.0 | 0 |
Steve Bullock (withdrawn) | 64 | 0.0 | 0 |
David John Thistle | 53 | 0.0 | 0 |
Lorenz Kraus | 52 | 0.0 | 0 |
Robby Wells | 45 | 0.0 | 0 |
Henry Hewes | 43 | 0.0 | 0 |
Sam Sloan | 34 | 0.0 | 0 |
Mosie Boyd | 32 | 0.0 | 0 |
Ben Gleiberman (withdrawn) | 31 | 0.0 | 0 |
Mark Stewart Greenstein | 31 | 0.0 | 0 |
Thomas James Torgesen | 30 | 0.0 | 0 |
Rita Krichevsky | 23 | 0.0 | 0 |
Michael A. Ellinger | 19 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bill Weld (write-in Republican)[11] | 17 | 0.0 | 0 |
Jason Evritte Dunlap | 12 | 0.0 | 0 |
Roque De La Fuente III | 11 | 0.0 | 0 |
Mitt Romney (write-in Republican)[11] | 10 | 0.0 | 0 |
Raymond Michael Moroz | 8 | 0.0 | 0 |
Rick Kraft | 2 | 0.0 | 0 |
Matthew Matern | 2 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eric Merrill | 1 | 0.0 | 0 |
Total | 298,377 | 100% | 24 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Princeton Electoral Consortium[15] | Safe D | September 27, 2020 |
The Cook Political Report[16] | Lean D | September 10, 2020 |
Inside Elections[17] | Likely D | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Likely D | October 8, 2020 |
Politico[19] | Lean D | September 8, 2020 |
RCP[20] | Lean D | September 29, 2020 |
Niskanen[21] | Likely D | July 26, 2020 |
CNN[22] | Lean D | August 3, 2020 |
The Economist[23] | Likely D | September 2, 2020 |
CBS News[24] | Lean D | August 16, 2020 |
270towin[25] | Lean D | August 2, 2020 |
ABC News[26] | Lean D | July 31, 2020 |
NPR[27] | Lean D | August 3, 2020 |
NBC News[28] | Lean D | August 6, 2020 |
538[29] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | October 8–28, 2020 | October 29, 2020 | 53.4% | 42.4% | 4.2% | Biden +11.0 |
FiveThirtyEight | until October 31, 2020 | November 1, 2020 | 53.8% | 42.9% | 3.3% | Biden +10.9 |
Average | 53.6% | 42.7% | 3.7% | Biden +10.9 |
Polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45%[lower-alpha 5] | 54% | - | – | – |
American Research Group | Oct 26–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 58% | 1% | – | 2% |
University of New Hampshire | Oct 24–28, 2020 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 53% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,791 (LV) | – | 44% | 55% | - | – | – |
Saint Anselm College | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 1,018 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 52% | 2% | – | 2% |
YouGov/UMass Amherst | Oct 16–26, 2020 | 757 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 53% | 2% | 1%[lower-alpha 6] | 2% |
University of New Hampshire | Oct 9–12, 2020 | 899 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 55% | 0% | 0%[lower-alpha 7] | 2% |
Suffolk University/Boston Globe | Oct 8–12, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 51% | 2% | 3%[lower-alpha 8] | 5% |
Saint Anselm College | Oct 1–4, 2020 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 53% | - | 4%[lower-alpha 9] | 2% |
Emerson College | Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45%[lower-alpha 10] | 53% | - | 2%[lower-alpha 11] | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 637 (LV) | – | 43% | 55% | - | – | 2% |
American Research Group | Sep 25–28, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 53% | 1% | – | 2% |
University of New Hampshire | Sep 24–28, 2020 | 972 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 53% | 1% | 0%[lower-alpha 12] | 3% |
Pulse Opinion Research/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 1] | Sep 23–25, 2020 | 850 (LV) | ± 4% | 42%[lower-alpha 13] | 56% | - | 1%[lower-alpha 14] | 1% |
YouGov/UMass Lowell | Sep 17–25, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44%[lower-alpha 15] | 52% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 16] | 1% |
44%[lower-alpha 17] | 53% | - | 0%[lower-alpha 18] | 1% | ||||
Siena College/NYT Upshot | Sep 8–11, 2020 | 445 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 42% | 45% | 4% | 2%[lower-alpha 19] | 7%[lower-alpha 20] |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 444 (LV) | – | 39% | 60% | - | – | 1% |
Saint Anselm College | Aug 15–17, 2020 | 1,042 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 51% | - | 4%[lower-alpha 21] | 2% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 574 (LV) | – | 39% | 60% | - | – | 2% |
University of New Hampshire | Jul 16–28, 2020 | 1,893 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 40% | 53% | - | 4%[lower-alpha 22] | 3% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 191 (LV) | – | 39% | 61% | - | – | 1% |
University of New Hampshire | Jun 18–22, 2020 | 936 (LV) | – | 39% | 52% | - | 6%[lower-alpha 23] | 3% |
Saint Anselm College | Jun 13–16, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3% | 42% | 49% | - | 5% | 3% |
University of New Hampshire | May 14–18, 2020 | 790 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | - | 5%[lower-alpha 24] | 5% |
Saint Anselm College | Apr 23–27, 2020 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 50% | - | 2% | 7% |
University of New Hampshire | Feb 19–25, 2020 | 569 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 44% | - | 8%[lower-alpha 25] | 2% |
AtlasIntel | Feb 8–10, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3% | 46% | 44% | - | 11% | – |
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal | Feb 4–5, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49%[lower-alpha 26] | 45% | - | –[lower-alpha 27] | –[lower-alpha 28] |
Marist College/NBC News | Jan 20–23, 2020 | 2,223 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 51% | - | 2% | 5% |
Emerson College | Nov 23–26, 2019 | 637 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 52% | - | – | – |
547 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 46% | - | – | 13% | ||
Saint Anselm College | Nov 13–18, 2019 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 51% | - | – | 6% |
Emerson College | Sep 6–9, 2019 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 55% | - | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | Aug 2–6, 2019 | 505 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 53% | - | – | 7% |
Emerson College | Feb 21–22, 2019 | 910 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 55% | - | – | – |
American Research Group | Mar 21–27, 2018 | 1,365 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 53% | - | – | 8% |
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Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang
Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz
with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz
with John Kasich and Joe Biden
with John Kasich and Elizabeth Warren
with Donald Trump and generic Democrat
with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and generic third party
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
|
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
424,921 | 52.78% | |
Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
365,654 | 45.42% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
13,235 | 1.64% | |
Green | Howie Hawkins (write-in) Angela Walker (write-in) |
217 | 0.03% | |
Independent | Bernie Sanders (write-in) | 192 | 0.02% | |
Republican | Mitt Romney (write-in) | 170 | 0.02% | |
Democratic | Tulsi Gabbard (write-in) | 142 | 0.02% | |
Independent | Kanye West (write-in) | 82 | 0.01% | |
Republican | John Kasich (write-in) | 67 | 0.01% | |
Democratic | Andrew Yang (write-in) | 58 | 0.01% | |
Republican | Mike Pence (write-in) | 56 | 0.01% | |
Democratic | Pete Buttigieg (write-in) | 47 | 0.01% | |
Republican | Chris Sununu (write-in) | 46 | 0.01% | |
Republican | Bill Weld (write-in) | 23 | 0.00% | |
Libertarian | Vermin Supreme (write-in) | 22 | 0.00% | |
Democratic | Amy Klobuchar (write-in) | 19 | 0.00% | |
Democratic | Andrew Cuomo (write-in) | 14 | 0.00% | |
Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (write-in) | 14 | 0.00% | |
Libertarian | Ron Paul (write-in) | 13 | 0.00% | |
Republican | Condoleezza Rice (write-in) | 12 | 0.00% | |
Republican | Mike Huckabee (write-in) | 10 | 0.00% | |
Democratic | Michelle Obama (write-in) | 10 | 0.00% | |
American Solidarity | Brian T. Carroll (write-in) | <10 | 0.00% | |
Independent | Brock Pierce (write-in) | <10 | 0.00% | |
Independent | Albert Raley (write-in) | <10 | 0.00% | |
Independent | Jade Simmons (write-in) | <10 | 0.00% | |
Constitution | Sheila Tittle (write-in) | <10 | 0.00% | |
Total votes | 805,058 | 100.00% |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Carroll (largest municipality: Conway)
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
- Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)
- Sullivan (largest municipality: Claremont)
Results by congressional district
District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 52% | 46% | Chris Pappas |
2nd | 54% | 45% | Ann McLane Kuster |
See also
Notes
- The other fifteen states were Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
- Number of pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[12][13]
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Another candidate" with 1%
- "Another candidate" with 0%
- "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 4%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Another candidate" with 0%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Some other candidate" with 1%
- Standard VI response
- Hawkins (G) with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
- With only Biden, Trump and "Another candidate" as options
- "Another candidate" with 0%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Someone else" with 4%
- "Another candidate" with 4%
- "Another candidate" with 6%
- "Another candidate" with 5%
- "Another candidate" with 8%
- Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Data not yet released
- Data not yet released
- Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Data not yet released
- Data not yet released
- "Someone else" with 9%
- Would vote for a candidate other than Trump
- Would not vote with 2%
- Partisan clients
- The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "New Hampshire Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- Stack, Liam (August 3, 2017). "Trump Called New Hampshire a 'Drug-Infested Den,' Drawing the Ire of Its Politicians". The New York Times. Retrieved February 1, 2021.
- Alex Seitz-Wald (December 9, 2018). "2020 Democratic primary: California and Texas look to become the new Iowa and New Hampshire". NBC News. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
- Steve Peoples; Kathleen Ronayne; Hunter Woodall (February 11, 2020). "President Trump wins GOP primary with more votes than any incumbent president in history". Associated Press. KRCR.
- "2020 Presidential Primary - Republican Write-Ins - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
- "Content - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
- "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 13, 2020. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic Write-Ins (last update: 19:06 Feb.13)". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "Live Results: New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. February 11, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
- "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
- Marc Fortier (February 13, 2020). "Bloomberg Beat 2 Well-Known Democrats in the NH Primary. He Wasn't Even on the Ballot". NBC Boston (WBTS-CD). Retrieved February 13, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Maps from Princeton Election Consortium". Princeton University. Retrieved September 22, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "President and Vice-President of the United States - excel". sos.nh.gov/. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
- "President Write-ins - pdf". sos.nh.gov/. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
New Hampshire
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "New Hampshire", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "New Hampshire: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of New Hampshire". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- New Hampshire at Ballotpedia