2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

November 3, 2020
Turnout	74.63% 2.65 pp[1]
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,985,023 976,414 Percentage 65.36% 32.15%
County results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

Joe Biden easily carried Maryland 65.7% to 32.2%, a margin of 33.2%, somewhat better than Clinton's 26.4% in 2016. Prior to the election, all news organizations considered Maryland "Safe Biden". Formerly a swing state,[4] Maryland is known for being one of the most progressive states in the East Coast, as well as the single most progressive in the South, and has been a Democratic stronghold since 1992.

Biden carried Montgomery, Prince George's, and Baltimore counties, and the city of Baltimore, with 77.5%, 89.3%, 58.8%, and 87.3% of the vote, respectively. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Maryland came from 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%.[5]

Biden flipped the Washington, D.C.-area exurban county of Frederick County, as well as Talbot County--home to Easton--Democratic for the first time since 1964.[6] He also flipped Kent County, located on the Eastern Shore, blue, likely due to an increase in urbanization in neighboring Middletown, Delaware. In a third county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico, Biden failed to prevail but nevertheless held Trump to the first plurality (rather than majority) win for a Republican nominee since 1996.

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland since fellow Democrat Horatio Seymour's in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run against both President William Howard Taft and New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson. Even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860 did the Republican nominee perform worse in the state than Trump did in 2020.

Maryland was one of seventeen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1] The Republican presidential vote share has now declined for four elections in a row in the Old Line State, the longest such run of declines for either party in any state. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[8]

Democratic primary

2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary[9]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[10]
Joe Biden	879,753	83.7%	96
Bernie Sanders (suspended)	81,939	7.8%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	27,134	2.6%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	7,180	0.7%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	6,773	0.6%
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	6,670	0.6%
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	5,685	0.5%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	4,226	0.4%
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	2,662	0.3%
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	2,291	0.2%
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	897	0.1%
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	760	0.1%
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	671	0.1%
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	406	0.0%
Uncommitted	23,726	2.3%
Total	1,050,773	100%	96

Green primary

2020 Maryland Green Party primary[11][12]
Candidate	Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Howie Hawkins	34	53.1%	34	61.8%	34	64.15%	34	68%
Dario Hunter	16	25%	16	29.1%	16	30.18%	16	32%
Kent Mesplay	2	3.1%	3	5.5%	3	5.66%	Eliminated
Write-ins	2	3.1%	2	3.6%	Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry	1	1.6%	Eliminated
Empty ballot	9	14.1%	Eliminated
Total votes							64	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[13]	Safe D	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[14]	Safe D	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]	Safe D	July 14, 2020
Politico[16]	Safe D	September 8, 2020
RCP[17]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
Niskanen[18]	Safe D	July 26, 2020
CNN[19]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist[20]	Safe D	September 2, 2020
CBS News[21]	Likely D	August 16, 2020
270towin[22]	Safe D	August 2, 2020
ABC News[23]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR[24]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
NBC News[25]	Safe D	August 6, 2020
538[26]	Safe D	September 9, 2020

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2]	Margin
270 to Win	September 29 – October 24, 2020	October 28, 2020	60.0%	31.7%	8.3%	Biden +28.3
Real Clear Politics	September 4 – October 24, 2020	October 28, 2020	60.3%	31.0%	8.7%	Biden +29.3
FiveThirtyEight	until October 27, 2020	October 28, 2020	61.5%	32.0%	6.5%	Biden +29.5
Average			60.6%	31.6%	7.8%	Biden +29.0

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	3,216 (LV)	± 2.5%	31%[lower-alpha 4]	66%	–	–	–	–
Swayable	Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020	503 (LV)	± 5.7%	31%	67%	2%	0%	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	5,820 (LV)	–	32%	66%	–	–	–	–
Gonzalez Maryland Poll	Oct 19–24, 2020	820 (RV)	± 3.5%	33%	58%	–	–	3%[lower-alpha 5]	6%
Goucher College	Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020	776 (LV)	± 3.5%	30%	61%	2%	2%	3%[lower-alpha 6]	2%
Change Research/Our Voice Maryland	Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020	650 (V)	± 4.55%	32%	61%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	2,364 (LV)	–	31%	67%	–	–	–	2%
OpinionWorks	Sep 4–11, 2020	753 (LV)	–	30%	62%	–	–	3%[lower-alpha 7]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	1,813 (LV)	–	31%	66%	–	–	–	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	1,911 (LV)	–	32%	66%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	1,175 (LV)	–	34%	64%	–	–	–	2%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll	May 19–23, 2020	810 (LV)	± 3.5%	31%	59%	–	–	–	6%
Goucher College	Feb 13–19, 2020	718 (LV)	± 3.6%	35%	60%	–	–	1%[lower-alpha 8]	4%[lower-alpha 9]

Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% – with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 33% 58% – with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Tulsi Gabbard (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 52% – with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% – with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 34% 61% – with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Tom Steyer (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 36% 54% – with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 59% –

Hypothetical polling
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[lower-alpha 3] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Other Undecided Goucher College Sep 13–18, 2019 548 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 65% 3%[lower-alpha 10] 4% DFM Research Jan 19–22, 2019 500 (A) ± 4.4% 31% 53% – 16%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland[27]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	1,985,023	65.36%	+5.03%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	976,414	32.15%	-1.76%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	33,488	1.10%	-1.76%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	15,799	0.52%	-0.77%
	Bread and Roses	Jerome Segal John de Graaf	5,884	0.19%	N/A
	Write-in		20,422	0.67%	-0.94%
Total votes			3,037,030	100%

County summary

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Allegany	9,158	29.89%	20,886	68.16%	597	1.95%	-11,728	-38.28%	30,641
Anne Arundel	172,823	55.82%	127,821	41.28%	8,973	2.90%	45,002	14.53%	309,617
Baltimore County	258,409	62.28%	146,202	35.24%	10,321	2.49%	112,207	27.04%	414,932
Baltimore City	207,260	87.28%	25,374	10.69%	4,827	2.03%	181,886	76.60%	237,461
Calvert	22,587	45.99%	25,346	51.61%	1,179	2.40%	-2,759	-5.62%	49,112
Caroline	5,095	32.26%	10,283	65.11%	416	2.63%	-5,188	-32.85%	15,794
Carroll	36,456	36.34%	60,218	60.02%	3,635	3.64%	-23,762	-23.68%	100,327
Cecil	16,809	35.42%	29,439	62.03%	1,214	2.56%	-12,630	-26.61%	47,462
Charles	62,171	69.47%	25,579	28.58%	1,748	1.95%	36,592	40.89%	89,498
Dorchester	6,857	42.92%	8,764	54.85%	356	2.23%	-1,907	-11.94%	15,977
Frederick	77,675	53.34%	63,682	43.73%	4,258	2.92%	13,993	9.61%	145,615
Garrett	3,281	21.02%	12,002	76.88%	328	2.10%	-8,721	-55.86%	15,611
Harford	63,095	42.58%	80,930	54.61%	4,161	2.81%	-17,835	-12.04%	148,186
Howard	129,433	70.70%	48,390	26.43%	5,240	2.86%	81,043	44.27%	183,063
Kent	5,329	49.37%	5,195	48.13%	270	2.50%	134	1.24%	10,794
Montgomery	419,569	78.61%	101,222	18.96%	12,952	2.43%	318,347	59.64%	533,743
Prince George's	379,208	89.26%	37,090	8.73%	8,557	2.01%	342,118	80.53%	424,855
Queen Anne's	10,709	35.35%	18,741	61.87%	840	2.77%	-8,032	-26.52%	30,290
St. Mary's	23,138	41.57%	30,826	55.38%	1,701	3.06%	-7,688	-13.81%	55,665
Somerset	4,241	41.80%	5,739	56.56%	167	1.65%	-1,498	-14.76%	10,147
Talbot	11,062	49.04%	10,946	48.53%	547	2.43%	116	0.51%	22,555
Washington	26,044	38.42%	40,224	59.35%	1,511	2.23%	-14,180	-20.92%	67,779
Wicomico	22,054	47.72%	22,944	49.65%	1,218	2.64%	-890	-1.93%	46,216
Worcester	12,560	39.63%	18,571	58.60%	560	1.77%	-6,011	-18.97%	31,691
Totals	1,985,023	65.36%	976,414	32.15%	75,594	2.49%	1,008,609	33.21%	3,037,031

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Frederick (largest municipality: Frederick)
• Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
• Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)

By congressional district

Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts. [28]

District	Biden	Trump	Representative
1st	39%	59%	Andy Harris
2nd	66%	32%	Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd	69%	29%	John Sarbanes
4th	79%	19%	Anthony Brown
5th	69%	30%	Steny Hoyer
6th	61%	38%	David Trone
7th	78%	20%	Kweisi Mfume
8th	69%	29%	Jamie Raskin

See also

• United States presidential elections in Maryland
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. The other sixteen states were, Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
5. "Someone else" with 3%
6. "Refused" with 3%
7. "Someone else" with 3%
8. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
9. Includes "Refused"
10. "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References

1. "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).
2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "CQ Almanac Online Edition". library.cqpress.com. Retrieved January 31, 2021.
5. "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
6. "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
7. "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.
8. "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
9. "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
10. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
11. "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
12. "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
13. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
14. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
15. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
16. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
17. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
18. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
19. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
20. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
21. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
22. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
23. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
24. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
25. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
26. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
27. "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
28. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020-2016-and-2012

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Maryland

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Maryland", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Maryland: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Maryland". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Maryland at Ballotpedia