2020 United States presidential election in Utah
The 2020 United States presidential election in Utah was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Utah voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Utah has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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Turnout | 90.09% (of registered voters) [1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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County results
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Elections in Utah |
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Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations projected Utah as leaning towards Trump, or a safe red state. Throughout the campaign, Trump did not exceed 60% in a single poll conducted. Some polls even showed the president leading by single digits against Biden, likely indicating a closer than normal contest in this traditionally Republican stronghold. Trump won Utah with 58.1% of the vote and a margin of 20.5%, an improvement on his 18.1% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but a narrower margin than past Republican nominees Mitt Romney in 2012, John McCain in 2008, George W. Bush in 2004 and 2000, and Bob Dole in 1996. Trump performed strongly in rural areas, as well as in some larger counties like Utah (Provo), Davis (Farmington), and Weber (Ogden). Trump improved over his 45.5% plurality win in 2016, due in part to the lack of a strong third party presence, as Evan McMullin, who endorsed Biden,[4][5] earned 21.5% of the vote that year. The election was far more of a two-party contest in 2020, with Trump and Biden earning 95.8% of the vote, compared to 2016 when 27% of the vote went to third parties. Despite this, the Associated Press reported a less partisan and more cooperative cultural environment in Utah compared to other states during the election.[6]
With no major third-party challenges, Trump improved his vote share by 13% while Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's 2016 results by 10.3 percentage points. Biden's improvement garnered him the best performance by a Democratic presidential nominee in Utah since Lyndon Johnson won with 54.9% of the vote in 1964, as Biden overtook the vote shares of Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Barack Obama in 2008, and Jimmy Carter in 1976 (the only other Democratic nominees to surpass a third of the state's vote since 1964). Biden's greatest support came from Salt Lake County, the state's most populous county, where he won 53.7%, the first outright majority for a Democratic nominee in the county since Johnson in 1964. Biden also won Summit County (Park City), which, along with Salt Lake, was one of two counties in the state Hillary Clinton had carried in 2016 (and the only one where she had won a majority); and he flipped Grand County (Moab), which had voted Democratic in 1992 and 2008.[7]
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Utah came from Mormons. 53% of voters identified as Mormons, and Trump received 72% of their votes.[8] Trump also won the suburban areas, which make up 57% of the state, with 54% of the vote.[9]
Utah is also one of the 8 states in which Trump’s margin increased from 2016.
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Utah politicians Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney both declined to run against Trump.
Democratic primary
The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[13][14]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[16] |
---|---|---|---|
Bernie Sanders | 79,728 | 36.14 | 16 |
Joe Biden | 40,674 | 18.44 | 7 |
Elizabeth Warren | 35,727 | 16.20 | 3 |
Michael Bloomberg | 33,991 | 15.41 | 3 |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 18,734 | 8.49 | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) | 7,603 | 3.45 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 1,704 | 0.77 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 950 | 0.43 | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) | 703 | 0.32 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 220 | 0.10 | |
Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 159 | 0.07 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 138 | 0.06 | |
Roque De La Fuente III | 127 | 0.06 | |
Nathan Bloxham | 69 | 0.03 | |
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 55 | 0.02 | |
Total | 220,582 | 100% | 29 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[17] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
Inside Elections[18] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
Politico[20] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
RCP[21] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
Niskanen[22] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
CNN[23] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
The Economist[24] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
CBS News[25] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
270towin[26] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
ABC News[27] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
NPR[28] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
NBC News[29] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
538[30] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
270 to Win | September 26 – October 17, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 39.0% | 50.0% | 11.0% | Trump +11.0 |
FiveThirtyEight | until October 27, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 40.1% | 51.3% | 8.6% | Trump +11.2 |
Average | 39.6% | 50.7% | 9.7% | Trump +11.1 |
Polls
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,586 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55%[lower-alpha 3] | 43% | – | – | – | – |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,783 (LV) | – | 55% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune | Oct 15–24, 2020 | 660 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 44% | – | – | 5%[lower-alpha 4] | – |
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics | Oct 12–17, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 38% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune | Sep 26 – Oct 4, 2020 | 1,214 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 40% | – | – | 10% | 1% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 1,192 (LV) | – | 56% | 42% | – | – | – | 2% |
RMG Research/Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics | Sep 7–12, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 53% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 893 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | – | – | – | 2% |
RMG Research/Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Jul 27 – Aug 1, 2020 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 11% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,037 (LV) | – | 58% | 40% | – | – | – | 2% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 412 (LV) | – | 57% | 41% | – | – | – | 1% |
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy.com/KUTV 2 | May 9–15, 2020 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 41% | – | – | 9%[lower-alpha 5] | 5% |
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Apr 15–21, 2020 | 964 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 32% | – | – | 8% | 9% |
Y2 Analytics | Mar 21–30, 2020 | 1,266 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 41% | – | – | 7% | 5% |
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Feb 24 – Mar 1, 2020 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 33% | – | – | 8%[lower-alpha 6] | 8% |
Scott Rasmussen/Deseret News | Jan 15–22, 2020 | 1,017 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 31% | – | – | 13%[lower-alpha 7] | 7% |
Y2 Analytics | Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2019 | 149 (RV) | – | 36% | 35% | – | – | 14%[lower-alpha 8] | 5% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
with Donald Trump and Cory Booker
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
865,140 | 58.13% | +12.59% | |
Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
560,282 | 37.65% | +10.19% | |
Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
38,447 | 2.58% | -0.92% | |
Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
7,213 | 0.48% | - | |
Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
5,551 | 0.37% | -0.34% | |
Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
5,053 | 0.34% | -0.49% | |
Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
2,623 | 0.18% | - | |
Independent | Joe McHugh Elizabeth Storm |
2,229 | 0.15% | - | |
Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
1,139 | 0.08% | - | |
Write-in | 612 | 0.04% | -0.38% | ||
Total votes | 1,505,828 | 100.00% | - |
Results by county
County[1] | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Kanye West Independent |
Don Blankenship Constitution |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Beaver | 2,695 | 86.94% | 357 | 11.52% | 23 | 0.74% | 7 | 0.23% | 4 | 0.13% | 6 | 0.19% | 8 | 0.26% | 2,338 | 75.42% | 3,100 |
Box Elder | 21,548 | 79.73% | 4,473 | 16.55% | 614 | 2.27% | 112 | 0.41% | 134 | 0.50% | 55 | 0.20% | 91 | 0.34% | 17,075 | 63.18% | 27,320 |
Cache | 38,032 | 66.06% | 16,650 | 28.92% | 1,796 | 3.12% | 230 | 0.40% | 351 | 0.61% | 217 | 0.38% | 295 | 0.51% | 21,382 | 37.14% | 58,358 |
Carbon | 6,693 | 71.44% | 2,392 | 25.53% | 151 | 1.61% | 44 | 0.47% | 22 | 0.23% | 18 | 0.19% | 49 | 0.52% | 4,301 | 45.91% | 9,369 |
Daggett | 496 | 80.13% | 111 | 17.93% | 7 | 1.13% | 2 | 0.32% | 2 | 0.32% | 0 | 0.00% | 1 | 0.16% | 385 | 62.20% | 622 |
Davis | 104,135 | 61.29% | 57,411 | 33.79% | 5,004 | 2.95% | 1,012 | 0.60% | 827 | 0.49% | 597 | 0.35% | 909 | 0.54% | 46,724 | 27.50% | 173,434 |
Duchesne | 7,513 | 88.14% | 843 | 9.89% | 107 | 1.26% | 18 | 0.21% | 21 | 0.25% | 9 | 0.11% | 13 | 0.15% | 6,670 | 78.25% | 8,562 |
Emery | 4,207 | 86.47% | 572 | 11.76% | 47 | 0.97% | 15 | 0.31% | 4 | 0.08% | 8 | 0.16% | 12 | 0.25% | 3,635 | 74.72% | 4,898 |
Garfield | 2,158 | 78.99% | 514 | 18.81% | 37 | 1.35% | 2 | 0.07% | 3 | 0.11% | 11 | 0.40% | 7 | 0.26% | 1,644 | 60.18% | 2,732 |
Grand | 2,248 | 43.36% | 2,806 | 54.12% | 62 | 1.20% | 19 | 0.37% | 5 | 0.10% | 23 | 0.44% | 22 | 0.42% | -558 | -10.76% | 5,205 |
Iron | 18,989 | 76.29% | 4,892 | 19.65% | 666 | 2.68% | 94 | 0.38% | 88 | 0.35% | 78 | 0.31% | 83 | 0.33% | 14,097 | 56.64% | 25,104 |
Juab | 5,087 | 86.72% | 645 | 11.00% | 91 | 1.55% | 13 | 0.22% | 16 | 0.27% | 5 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.15% | 4,442 | 75.72% | 5,903 |
Kane | 2,998 | 71.72% | 1,083 | 25.91% | 51 | 1.22% | 15 | 0.36% | 16 | 0.38% | 8 | 0.19% | 9 | 0.22% | 1,915 | 45.81% | 4,205 |
Millard | 5,404 | 87.73% | 624 | 10.13% | 64 | 1.04% | 16 | 0.26% | 26 | 0.42% | 5 | 0.08% | 21 | 0.34% | 4,780 | 77.60% | 6,190 |
Morgan | 5,181 | 79.56% | 1,086 | 16.68% | 160 | 2.46% | 35 | 0.54% | 21 | 0.32% | 13 | 0.20% | 16 | 0.25% | 4,095 | 62.88% | 6,606 |
Piute | 773 | 88.75% | 86 | 9.87% | 7 | 0.80% | 3 | 0.34% | 1 | 0.11% | 0 | 0.00% | 1 | 0.11% | 687 | 78.87% | 871 |
Rich | 1,157 | 84.89% | 180 | 13.21% | 14 | 1.03% | 4 | 0.29% | 3 | 0.22% | 2 | 0.15% | 3 | 0.22% | 977 | 71.68% | 1,363 |
Salt Lake | 230,174 | 42.53% | 289,906 | 53.57% | 12,219 | 2.26% | 2,590 | 0.48% | 1,570 | 0.29% | 2,203 | 0.41% | 2,513 | 0.46% | -59,732 | -11.04% | 546,581 |
San Juan | 3,535 | 51.40% | 3,113 | 45.26% | 99 | 1.44% | 45 | 0.65% | 28 | 0.41% | 17 | 0.25% | 41 | 0.60% | 422 | 6.14% | 6,904 |
Sanpete | 10,459 | 82.80% | 1,794 | 14.20% | 215 | 1.70% | 39 | 0.31% | 50 | 0.40% | 19 | 0.15% | 55 | 0.44% | 8,665 | 68.60% | 12,631 |
Sevier | 9,052 | 87.35% | 1,084 | 10.46% | 133 | 1.28% | 28 | 0.27% | 31 | 0.30% | 14 | 0.14% | 21 | 0.20% | 7,968 | 76.89% | 10,363 |
Summit | 10,252 | 39.30% | 15,244 | 58.43% | 367 | 1.41% | 86 | 0.33% | 25 | 0.10% | 65 | 0.25% | 49 | 0.19% | -4,992 | -19.14% | 26,289 |
Tooele | 21,014 | 66.67% | 8,943 | 28.37% | 958 | 3.04% | 152 | 0.48% | 181 | 0.57% | 81 | 0.26% | 189 | 0.60% | 12,071 | 38.30% | 31,518 |
Uintah | 13,261 | 86.63% | 1,663 | 10.86% | 226 | 1.48% | 37 | 0.24% | 56 | 0.37% | 29 | 0.19% | 35 | 0.23% | 11,598 | 75.77% | 15,370 |
Utah | 192,812 | 67.78% | 76,033 | 26.73% | 10,377 | 3.65% | 1,680 | 0.59% | 1,375 | 0.48% | 853 | 0.30% | 1,350 | 0.47% | 116,779 | 41.05% | 289,101 |
Wasatch | 10,795 | 61.40% | 6,187 | 35.19% | 352 | 2.00% | 86 | 0.49% | 53 | 0.30% | 45 | 0.26% | 63 | 0.36% | 4,608 | 26.21% | 17,790 |
Washington | 67,294 | 74.38% | 20,530 | 22.69% | 1,742 | 1.93% | 298 | 0.33% | 220 | 0.24% | 187 | 0.21% | 205 | 0.23% | 46,764 | 51.69% | 91,160 |
Wayne | 1,229 | 75.82% | 365 | 22.52% | 9 | 0.56% | 7 | 0.43% | 3 | 0.19% | 3 | 0.19% | 5 | 0.31% | 864 | 53.30% | 1,630 |
Weber | 65,949 | 59.18% | 40,695 | 36.52% | 2,849 | 2.56% | 524 | 0.47% | 415 | 0.37% | 482 | 0.43% | 528 | 0.47% | 25,254 | 22.66% | 112,469 |
Totals | 865,140 | 58.13% | 560,282 | 37.65% | 38,447 | 2.58% | 7,213 | 0.48% | 5,551 | 0.37% | 5,053 | 0.34% | 6,603 | 0.44% | 304,858 | 20.48% | 1,505,828 |
By congressional district
Trump won all four congressional districts.[31]
District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 64.2% | 31.6% | Rob Bishop |
Blake Moore | |||
2nd | 56.1% | 40.2% | Chris Stewart |
3rd | 60.3% | 35.2% | John Curtis |
4th | 52.4% | 43.3% | Ben McAdams |
Burgess Owens | |||
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 5%
- "Third party candidate" with 8%; "other" with 1%
- Other with 5%; would not vote with 3%
- Other with 9%; would not vote with 4%
- "A third-party candidate" with 10%; other with 4%
- Other with 8%; would not vote with 3%
- "A third-party candidate" with 16%; other with 7%
- Other with 9%; would not vote with 4%
- "A third-party candidate" with 12%; other with 3%
- "A third-party candidate" with 13%; other with 2%
- Other with 10%; would not vote with 4%
- "A third-party candidate" with 20%; other with 5%
- Other with 6%; would not vote with 3%
- Other with 10%; would not vote with 3%
- "A third-party candidate" with 10%; other with 4%
- Other with 9%; would not vote with 3%
- Other with 9%; would not vote with 3%
- "A third-party candidate" with 15%; other with 4%
- "Third party candidate" with 8%; "other" with 4%
- "Third party candidate" with 12%; "other" with 4%
- "Third party candidate" with 12%; "other" with 6%
- Listed as "Time to give someone new a chance to serve" (as opposed to "should be re-elected")
See also
References
- Lieutenant Governor of the State of Utah (November 23, 2020). "2020 General Election Canvass" (PDF). Retrieved November 23, 2020.
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Former presidential candidate Evan McMullin endorses Rep. Ben McAdams in Utah race". www.ksl.com. Retrieved December 29, 2020.
- "'Utah Politics' podcast: Evan McMullin on foreign election interference and QAnon". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved December 29, 2020.
- Sullivan, Tim (December 17, 2020). "AP ROAD TRIP: Amid American rancor, a dash of Utah Nice". Associated Press. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
- "The Political Graveyard: Grand County, Utah". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- "Utah Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- "Utah Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Candidates – Utah Voter Information". voteinfo.utah.gov.
- "Utah Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primary Election State Canvass". Utah.gov. Lieutenant Governor of the State of Utah. March 24, 2020. Archived from the original on April 8, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "2020 Presidential Primary Election State Canvass". Utah.gov. Lieutenant Governor of the State of Utah. March 24, 2020. Archived from the original on April 8, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- "Utah Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- Nir, David (November 19, 2020). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Utah", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Utah: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Utah". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Utah at Ballotpedia