2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee

The 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Tennessee, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Lamar Alexander announced that he would not run for reelection on December 17, 2018.[1] The former United States Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty won the open seat by a large margin against his Democratic opponent Marquita Bradshaw.

2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee
November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03)
 
Nominee Bill Hagerty Marquita Bradshaw
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,840,926 1,040,691
Percentage 62.2% 35.2%
County results
Hagerty:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Bradshaw:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Lamar Alexander
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Hagerty
Republican

Elections in Tennessee
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Special elections
State government
Gubernatorial elections
Ballot measures
Amendment 1, 2006
Knoxville
Mayoral elections
1987
2003
2007
2011
2015
2019
Memphis
Mayoral elections
2015
2019
Nashville
Mayoral elections
2011
2015
2018 (special)
2019
Government

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary
  • Cliff Adkins[4]
  • Natisha Brooks[4]
  • Byron Bush, dentist[5]
  • Roy Dale Cope, small business owner and pharmacist[6][7]
  • Terry Dicus, attorney[7]
  • Tom Emerson, Jr., Tea Party candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[8]
  • George Flinn, Jr., former Shelby County commissioner, Nixon Admin. Official, physician, engineer, businessman, and republican candidate in Tennessee's 8th congressional district in 2016 and 2018[9]
  • Jon Henry, U.S. Marine Corps veteran[9]
  • Kent Morrell, business owner[9]
  • Glen Neal, Jr., retired public servant[9]
  • John Osborne, real estate agent and business owner[9]
  • Aaron Pettigrew, truck driver[10]
  • David Schuster, U.S. Navy veteran[8]
  • Manny Sethi, orthopedic surgeon, director of the Vanderbilt Orthopedic Institute Center for Health Policy, and founder and President of the non-profit Healthy Tennessee[11]

Disqualified from the primary ballot

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements
Bill Hagerty
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Local Officials
  • Roane County Commissioner Randy Ellis[36]
  • Sandy Still[36]
  • Cary Vaughn[36]
Individuals
Organizations
Manny Sethi
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Mayors
Local Officials
Military
Religious Leaders
  • Jeffery Heard, reverend[50]
  • Louie Johnston Jr., reverend[48]
  • Marty Layton, reverend[48]
Individuals
Media
  • Mic Drop Radio, conservative podcast [55]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 George Flinn Mark Green Bill Hagerty Bill Haslam Manny Sethi Other Undecided
JMC Analytics and Polling July 18–19, 2020 600 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% – 36% – 32% 9% 20%
The Trafalgar Group July 6–8, 2020 1,062 (LV) ±  2.92% 4% – 42% – 39% 2% 13%
Victory Phones[upper-alpha 1] June 30 – July 1, 2020 800 (LV) ±  3.46% 6% – 33% – 31% – 30%
The Tarrance Group[upper-alpha 2] June 28–30, 2020 651 (LV) ±  4.0% 5% – 46% – 29% 2%[lower-alpha 2] 18%
Victory Phones[upper-alpha 1] June 2, 2020 –[lower-alpha 3] – – – 27% – 11% – –
July 11, 2019 Green and Haslam announce they will not run
Triton/Tennessee Star April 13–16, 2019 1,003 (LV) ± 3.1% – 30% – 39% – – ~30%

Results
Results by county:
Republican primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Hagerty 331,267 50.75%
Republican Manny Sethi 257,223 39.41%
Republican George Flinn, Jr. 22,454 3.44%
Republican Jon Henry 8,104 1.24%
Republican Natisha Brooks 8,072 1.24%
Republican Byron Bush 5,420 0.83%
Republican Clifford Adkins 5,316 0.81%
Republican Terry Dicus 2,279 0.35%
Republican Tom Emerson, Jr. 2,252 0.35%
Republican David Schuster 2,045 0.31%
Republican John Osborne 1,877 0.29%
Republican Roy Dale Cope 1,791 0.27%
Republican Kent Morrell 1,769 0.27%
Republican Aaron Pettigrew 1,622 0.25%
Republican Glen Neal, Jr. 1,233 0.19%
Total votes 652,724 100.00%

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary
  • Gary G. Davis, small business owner, baker, pilot, and perennial candidate[59]
  • Robin Kimbrough Hayes, attorney and clergywoman[60]
  • James Mackler, attorney, U.S. Army veteran and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[2][61]
  • Mark Pickrell, entrepreneur, attorney and Baptist deacon[62]

Disqualified from the primary ballot
  • Tharon Chandler, journalist, economist, and conservationist[63]

Withdrawn
  • Diana C. Onyejiaka, college professor and consultant

Declined

Endorsements
James Mackler
Politicians
Organizations

Results
Results by county:
Democratic primary results[77]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 117,962 35.51%
Democratic Robin Kimbrough Hayes 88,492 26.64%
Democratic James Mackler 78,966 23.77%
Democratic Gary G. Davis 30,758 9.26%
Democratic Mark Pickrell 16,045 4.83%
Total votes 332,223 100.00%

Independents

Declared
  • Yomi Faparusi, physician, attorney, researcher, and former Republican candidate for Tennessee's 4th congressional district in 2014 and 2016[8]
  • Jeffrey Grunau, activist[8]
  • Ronnie Henley,[8]
  • Dean Hill, US veteran, former federal employee, and activist[8]
  • Steven Hooper[8]
  • Aaron James[8]
  • Elizabeth McLeod, conservative activist[8]
  • Eric William Stansberry[8]

Withdrawn
  • Tom Kovach, attorney[78][8]
  • Kacey Morgan, freelancer and operations director (endorsed Marquita Bradshaw) (remained on ballot)[79]

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[80] Safe R August 17, 2020
Inside Elections[81] Safe R September 18, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[82] Safe R August 5, 2020
Daily Kos[83] Safe R August 31, 2020
Politico[84] Safe R September 9, 2020
RCP[85] Likely R September 17, 2020
Niskanen[86] Safe R September 15, 2020
DDHQ[87] Safe R September 16, 2020
538[88] Safe R September 18, 2020

Endorsements
Bill Hagerty (R)
Federal Officials
Governors
State Officials
Local Officials
  • Roane County Commissioner Randy Ellis[36]
  • Sandy Still[36]
  • Cary Vaughn[36]
Individuals
Organizations
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
Federal Officials
Notable Individuals
Organizations
Unions

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Hagerty (R)		 Marquita
Bradshaw (D)		 Other Undecided
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020 431 (LV) ± 6.2% 61% 39% – –
Cygnal October 20–22, 2020 610 (LV) ± 3.97% 56% 36% 1%[lower-alpha 5] 7%
Hypothetical polling
with Bill Hagerty and James Mackler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Bill
Hagerty (R)		 James
Mackler (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 55% 33% 12%
with Manny Sethi and James Mackler
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Manny
Sethi (R)		 James
Mackler (D)		 Undecided
Mason-Dixon January 28–30, 2020 625 (RV) ± 4% 46% 35% 19%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Generic
Republican		 Generic
Democrat		 Undecided
Cygnal October 20–22, 2020 610 (LV) ± 3.97% 58% 38% – 4%
East Tennessee State University April 22 – May 1, 2020 536 (LV) – 43% 26% 31%[lower-alpha 6]

Results
2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee[108]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Bill Hagerty 1,840,926 62.20% +0.33%
Democratic Marquita Bradshaw 1,040,691 35.16% +3.29%
Independent Elizabeth McLeod 16,652 0.56% N/A
Independent Yomi Faparusi 10,727 0.36% N/A
Independent Stephen Hooper 9,609 0.32% N/A
Independent Kacey Morgan (withdrawn) 9,598 0.32% N/A
Independent Ronnie Henley 8,478 0.30% N/A
Independent Aaron James 7,203 0.29% N/A
Independent Eric William Stansberry 6,781 0.23% N/A
Independent Dean Hill 4,872 0.16% N/A
Independent Jeffrey Grunau 4,160 0.14% N/A
Write-in 64 0.00% ±0.00%
Total votes 2,959,761 100.0%
Republican hold

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "One of the other candidates" with 2%
  3. Not yet released
  4. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. "Third-party candidate" with 1%
  6. "Does not matter" with 26%; unsure with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for the Sethi campaign.
  2. Poll conducted for the Hagerty campaign.

References
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  95. Bradshaw, Marquita [@Bradshaw2020] (September 28, 2020). "#As my sister in service and fellow history-maker, I am so proud to have the support of Rep. @AyannaPressley. It couldn't be more clear– Tennesseans deserve a fearless leader. Let's shock the world, y'all! Join #TeamBradshaw Rightwards arrow Chip in $20.20 today:" (Tweet). Retrieved September 29, 2020 – via Twitter.
  96. Bernie Sanders [@BernieSanders] (September 21, 2020). "I'm proud to endorse @Bradshaw2020's grassroots campaign. Marquita is building a strong grassroots movement by standing up to big-money politics and challenging the status quo. I believe her bold, progressive movement, powered by the people, can make history in Tennessee" (Tweet). Retrieved September 21, 2020 – via Twitter.
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  102. "Candidate Endorsements".
  103. https://twitter.com/NWPCNational/status/1299025714226892800
  104. "TN-Sen: Sierra Club Endorses Environmental Justice Champion Marquita Bradshaw".
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Official campaign websites
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